000 AXNT20 KNHC 160559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Jan 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Gulf of Mexico Gale-Force Wind Warning... Gale-force winds, and rough seas, are starting now, from 21N to 30N between 91W and 98W. Expect also, strong to near gale-force winds, and rough seas, elsewhere, from 19N to 30N between 85W and 97W, including within 60 nm of Veracruz in Mexico. A cold front is passing through the coastal areas of Alabama and Mississippi, to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico near 20N and the coast of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate is in the eastern half of the area. Rainshowers are possible in the western half of the area. Slight seas cover the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere to the east of the cold front. ...Caribbean Sea Gale-Force Wind Warning... Expect NE to E strong to near gale-force winds, and gusts to gale-force, and rough seas, from 10N to 12N between 74W and 76W. Expect strong NE to E winds, and rough seas, elsewhere, from 10N to 18N between 70W and 78W. Expect in the remainder of the area: fresh or slower winds, and rough seas in E swell, from 10N to 16N between 74W and 80W. The surface pressure gradient, that is between western Atlantic Ocean high pressure and comparatively lower surface pressure in Colombia, will be supporting the gale- force wind conditions. Fresh winds right now are elsewhere in the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to E winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. Moderate or slower easterly winds are in the western one-third of the area. Moderate seas are elsewhere from Jamaica southward from 82W eastward. Slight seas are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Sierra Leone and Liberia, to 05N20W and 05N26W. The ITCZ continues from 05N26W, to 04N33W and 03N41W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward between 30W and 53W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 30W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning. A cold front is moving across the NW Gulf and extends from a 1013 mb low pressure located near 27N91W to south of Tampico, Mexico. The low pressure will move eastward toward the northeastern Gulf by Tue morning with the cold front extending to near Veracruz, Mexico. Gale northerly winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the front over the western Gulf Tue and Tue night. The front will exit the Gulf region Tue night into Wed morning. The next cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf late on Thu and move southward across the basin through late Fri night into early Sat morning, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force wind warning. High pressure NE of the basin combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the east and central Caribbean through Fri. Winds off northwestern Colombia will pulse to near gale-force with frequent gusts to gale-force tonight into early Tue morning. These winds might sustain at gale-force late Wednesday night. This same high will also cause fresh to locally strong trades with moderate to rough seas just east of the Lesser Antilles through at least Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 31N57W 30N60W 28N70W 28N75W. A warm front continues from 28N75W, to a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near along the NE Florida coast near 29.5N. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 28N northward between 70W and 80W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 23N northward from 60W westward. Fresh easterly winds are from 23N southward between 60W and 70W. Fresh NE winds are from 22N southward between 44W and 60W; and from 05N to 14N between 30W and 45W. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. The southernmost point of a warm front is near 31N44W. A surface trough continues from 31N44W, to 25N53W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 20N northward between 40W and 60W. Very rough seas are from 26N northward between 20W and 30W. Rough seas are elsewhere from the cold front northward between 20W and 50W. A dissipating eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front is along 31N20W 22N26W 17N40W. A trailing surface trough is about 250 nm to the northwest of the cold front. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 17N northward from 40W eastward. Rough seas also are from 06N southward between 20W and 50W. Moderate seas are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. Strong W to NW winds are from 25N northward between the cold front and 34W. Strong southerly winds are within 80 nm to the east of the cold front from 30N northward. A stationary front extends from southeast of Bermuda near 31N58W to 28N74W, then continues westward as a warm front toward northern Florida. The front is lifting northward ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the NE Florida coast on Tue. This new cold front will reach from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and western Cuba on Wed morning, and from 31N56W to the central Bahamas on Thu morning where it will become nearly stationary. High pressure building E of the front is going to keep fresh winds and moderate to rough seas near the southeast Bahamas, Greater Antilles and Leeward Islands most of this week. $$ mt/pc