000 AXNT20 KNHC 151748 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jan 15 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The surface pressure gradient between W Atlantic Ocean high pressure and lower pressure in Colombia and in Panama will support pulsing winds to minimal gale force within about 60 nm of the coast of Colombia Tuesday night. Seas will range from 8-11 ft due to strong to gale force winds in the area. Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell: Subsiding NW swell is behind a cold front stretching from 31N21W to 17N 50W. Seas are 12 to 16 ft seas north of 22N between 25W and 44W. Strong to near gale force W winds are noted behind the front north of 26N between 22W and 35W, where the highest seas are noted. Elsewhere behind the front, fresh to strong NW to N winds are north of 22N between 20W and 40W. This swell will subside further this afternoon and allow seas to drop below 12 ft. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front reaches southwestward from near New Orleans, Louisiana, to NE Mexico. A 1012 mb low has formed along this boundary near 28N94W. Strong to near gale force N winds are currently behind the front offshore TX and NE Mexico. Gale force northerly winds are expected to begin tonight offshore TX and western LA. Gales and rough seas in the wake of the front will begin over the west-central and SW parts of the Gulf Tue and Tue night. The front will gradually push southeastward across the Gulf through Tue night as the low pressure center lifts and moves eastward. Once this front has moved southeast of the region on Wed, both winds and seas will steadily subside. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then extends west-southwestward to 01N25W. The ITCZ continues from 01N25W to 04N40W and to 02N50W. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more information on a cold front associated with a Gale Warning in the western Gulf. Outside of the winds behind the frontal boundary mentioned in the special features section, moderate easterly to southeasterly winds prevail across the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico basin. Recent buoy observations note seas of 3 to 4 ft across the basin. Abundant moisture from the southerly flow ahead of the front is reaching the cooler shelf waters offshore W Florida resulting in the formation of dense fog with visibility below 1 nm for tonight through late tomorrow morning. For the forecast, the front mentioned in the special features sections will exit the Gulf region on Tuesday night into Wednesday, clearing out any marine fog. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf late on Thursday and move southward across the basin through late Friday night into early Saturday morning, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for more information on a Gale Warning for the Colombian basin. A 1024 mb high to the northeast near 27N57W will continue to support a trade-wind regime across much of the Caribbean Sea. A recent scatterometer and altimeter pass reveals fresh to strong ENE winds and seas of 9 to 12 ft are evident at the south-central basin, north of 10N. Fresh to locally strong E winds and 6 to 10 ft seas are noted across the central basin between 70W and 80W. Moderate to fresh winds are over the eastern basin, and moderate winds are noted over the NW basin with seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, high pressure NE of the basin combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the east and central Caribbean through Fri. Winds off northwestern Colombia will pulse to minimal gale force during the nights through Wed night. This same high will also cause fresh to locally strong trades with moderate to rough seas just east of the Lesser Antilles through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about Significant Swell event in the eastern Atlantic. A weak cold front stretches from 31N60W to 27N70W where the boundary transitions to a warm front extending west to the central Florida coast. A recent scatterometer pass reveals moderate to fresh SE winds south of the warm front over the Greater Antilles. Other than some isolated thunderstorms along the warm front offshore Florida, no significant convection is noted at this time. Seas are mainly 3 to 5 ft west of 55W. Outside the winds supporting the significant swell area mentioned in the Special Features section, winds are moderate surrounding a high pressure center located near 27N57W. Moderate to rough northerly swell continues across the central Atlantic north of the cold front between 44W and 60W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure of South America supports fresh trade winds south of 20N and west of 45W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast, the warm front will continue to lift northward ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off the NE Florida coast on Tue. This new front will reach from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and western Cuba on Wed, and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Wed evening, then stall over the central Bahamas on Thu. High pressure building E of the front is going to keep fresh winds and moderate to rough seas near the southeast Bahamas, Greater Antilles, and Leeward Islands for most of this week. $$ Mora