000 AXNT20 KNHC 140518 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jan 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... EASTERN ATLANTIC GALE AND SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: Persistent large northerly swell is going to sustain seas of 12 to 16 ft, north of 25N and east of 50W through late tonight. Two low-pressure systems are expected to merge into one near 33N38W late tonight or early Sun morning. This new low will deepen rapidly while moving southeastward, causing strong to gale-force NW winds north of 28N and east of 48W late tonight. The combination of existing northerly swell and building wind waves will cause seas north of 26N and west of 48W to peak at 14 to 21 ft. Once the low begins to gradually weaken and move east of the area by late Sun afternoon, winds will diminish by Mon morning. Seas will slowly subside through Mon also. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra Leone, continuing southwestward to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues southwestward from 05N20W to 03N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ from 01.5N to 06N east of 43W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front reaches southwestward from the Florida Straits to the eastern end of Cuba, then continues as a stationary front over the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and rough seas are found behind this front over the central and southeastern Gulf, including the eastern Bay of Campeche. For the remainder of the basin, gentle to moderate mainly easterly winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a cold front reaches southwestward from the Florida Straits to the eastern end of Cuba, then continues as a stationary front over the Yucatan Channel. Winds and seas across the Gulf have diminished, except fresh winds and higher seas across the southeastern Gulf through Sun morning. The stationary front will lift north as a weak warm front over the eastern Gulf Mon. Meanwhile, another frontal boundary will stall along the northwestern Gulf Sun night and Mon before pushing southeastward as a cold front starting Mon afternoon. A weak low pressure will form along this front over the west-central Gulf, and track northeastward across the Gulf. In response, strong northerly winds and rough seas will follow this frontal system across the Gulf late Tue through Wed. Winds may reach gale force over the far west-central and southwestern Gulf along the coast of Mexico Tue and Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the Gulf of Mexico across the Yucatan Channel to northern Belize. Gentle southerly winds and seas are noted in the NW Caribbean. High pressure north of the basin continues to promote moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas across the south-central part of the basin. Strong winds are noted near the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere across the Caribbean, gentle to moderate trades and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will lift north of the region as a warm front Mon. High pressure building north of the front will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean from late Sun through mid week. Looking ahead, another cold front will move into the Yucatan Channel on Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section regarding the Gale Warning and Significant Swell event in the central Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N72W to Straits of Florida. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the front N of 27.5N. Moderate to fresh SW winds are present ahead of the front to 67W veering to NW behind the front. Moderate to rough seas prevail north of 27N between 66W and the east coast of Florida. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to moderate seas are present from 66W east to 53W around a 1024 mb high pressure centered near 31.5N57W. Two additional cold fronts are depicted across the central Atlantic. The first front is dissipating and extends from 31N31W curving southwestward to 27N56W. Widely scattered moderate convection is depicted ahead of the dissipating cold front north of 23N and west of 28W. The second cold front enters our waters near 31N37W and extends southwestward to 29.5N53W. Recent scatterometer pass reveals areas of strong to near-gale force NW winds north of 29N between 39W and 43.5W and moderate to fresh NW winds in between the two fronts. Farther east, a stationary front stretches southwestward from 31N17W to 18N35W. Scattered moderate convection is observed east of this feature to the West African coast, north of 16N. Moderate to fresh S to SW prevail north of 25N and east of 35W to 17W. Across the remainder of the basin, gentle to moderate trades and moderate to rough seas prevail. For the forecast, a cold front reaching from 31N72W to the Great Bahama Bank. It will reach from Bermuda to 27N75W, then continue as a stationary front across NW Bahamas and western Cuba Sun morning. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas behind the front north of 28N will diminish by Sun noon. A period of fresh to strong northeasterly winds are expected north of the stationary front near the NW Bahamas Sun night. Afterward, the cold front will continue moving eastward across of the western Atlantic through Tue, while the stationary will lift north as a weak warm front Mon. Looking ahead, another cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Tue, and reach from Bermuda to central Cuba by late Wed. This will cause increasing winds and seas north of 27N once again. $$ KRV