000 AXNT20 KNHC 130604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Jan 13 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING: A cold front is passing through the Florida Panhandle/the Florida Big Bend, to the south central Gulf of Mexico, to the northern sections of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Gale-force NW to N winds, and rough seas, are from 19N to 20N between 95W and 97W, including within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz in Mexico. The wind speeds will be slowing down, to the strong to near gale-force range, during the next few hours. Expect strong to near gale-force winds, and rough seas, to continue until Saturday night, in the western half of the Gulf of Mexico. Rough seas cover the Gulf of Mexico from the coast of Mexico near 20N, to the central sections, toward the NE corner of the area. The comparatively highest sea heights, 12 feet, are in the NW corner of the area. Slight seas are elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible in the western half of the area, and from 23N northward from 90W eastward. EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: Very rough seas are to the north of the line 31N15W 26N17W 18N33W 31N44W. Rough to very rough seas are from 11N northward between 54W and 61W. Rough seas, in general, cover nearly the entire Atlantic Ocean from 61W eastward. Some exceptions are: moderate seas from 15N southward from 20W eastward; from 06N52W 03N38W southward; and from 61W westward. Strong and faster westerly winds are from 29N northward between 30W and 38W. Fresh westerly winds are elsewhere from 23N northward between 16W and 40W. A cold front passes through 31N17W 28N20W 21N30W 19N35W. Rainshowers are possible within 120 nm on either side of the front from 21N northward. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere from 36W eastward. The 24-hour forecast consists of: gale-force W to NW winds, and sea heights ranging from 16 feet to 20 feet in W to NW swell, from 29N to 31N between 37W and 42W. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING in the METEO-FRANCE MARINE ZONE IRVING: The METEO-FRANCE forecast, for the marine zone IRVING, consists of: gale-force winds in the marine zone IRVING, continuing for the next 12 hours or so. Please, refer to the METEO-FRANCE forecast, at https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/ bulletin/WONT50_LFPW/20240112210359043857, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 07N18W and 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W, to 03N24W 03N30W 05N36W. A surface trough is along 39W/41W from 05N southward. Precipitation: scattered moderate to widely scattered strong is from 02N southward between 40W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force winds, and the rough seas especially in the NW corner of the area. A cold front extending from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz, Mexico will push southeast tonight and then stall from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Channel Sat afternoon. Gale NW winds and rough seas off Veracruz will linger into midnight. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas follow the front elsewhere across the Gulf into Sat morning. The winds and the seas will diminish Sat afternoon through Sun as high pressure builds in the northern Gulf. Another front may enter the northwestern Gulf by late Mon, and move to southeast of the Gulf by late Wed night. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow this second front, with winds possibly reaching gale force in the west central and southwest Gulf Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad moderate to fresh cyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. Moderate seas are in the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Slight to moderate seas are in the eastern one-third of the area; and in the NW corner of the area. Slight seas are elsewhere. Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere throughout the area. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 13/0000 UTC are: 0.56 in Guadeloupe, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. High pressure northeast of the region will sustain fresh with locally strong trade winds and moderate seas at the central Caribbean tonight. Winds and seas will diminish Sat as the high shifts eastward. Fresh with locally strong SE winds and moderate seas are expected to persist over the northwestern Caribbean tonight ahead of a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. This front is forecast to weaken and stall across the Yucatan Channel Sat and Sun, allowing winds and seas to subside at the northwestern Caribbean. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will resume across the central basin Sun night into midweek as high pressure develops north of the region. Looking ahead, another cold front may move into the Yucatan Channel by late Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the forecast for gale-force winds in about 24 hours, and the central Atlantic Ocean the Significant Swell Event. Fresh NE winds are from 24N72W 22N53W 19N38W southward. Strong and faster SE winds are from 29N northward between 68W and 78W. These winds are to the east of a inland and coastal waters warm front. Moderate or slower winds cover the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 28N northward from 75W westward. A cold front passes through 31N47W, to 29N57W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N northward between 33W and 45W; and from 24N northward between 50W and 72W. Strong to near-gale force southerly winds and rough seas south of a warm front will continue across the waters north of the Bahamas and west of 70W tonight. A cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast early Sat morning, causing these winds to shift to the NW. The front will weaken and reach from near Bermuda to the Great Bahama Bank Sat night. Winds and seas will diminish as high pressure builds eastward along 30N following the front. The front will weaken more. It will become stationary south of Bermuda and in the northwest Bahamas Sun, then move northward as a warm front on Mon. SW winds will increase north of 27N on Tue, in advance of another cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow the front north of 27N as the front reaches from Bermuda to eastern Cuba Wed night. $$ mt/pc