000 AXNT20 KNHC 121815 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Jan 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A 986 mb low pressure southwest of the Azores producing gale to strong gale force winds is producing an area of rough to very rough NW swell north of 17N and between 17W and 43W. Peak seas of 20 ft are noted along 30N between 32W and 38W. As the low pressure system lifts north, seas will subside over the weekend, with 12 ft seas mainly north of 20N by tomorrow morning and continuing to diminish throughout Saturday. Central Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell Event: Another area of strong area of low pressure supporting gale force winds along 30N in the central Atlantic will generate an area of rough to very rough seas. Seas above 12 ft will reach the area by late Saturday night and extend to 25N and between 33W and 50W by late Sunday morning. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front has entered the NW Gulf of Mexico this morning, moving rapidly across the basin. Gale force winds are noted following the front in the NW Gulf offshore Texas. As this front sinks southeastward across the western Gulf this afternoon and evening, winds will increase to gale force in the SW Gulf off Veracruz, Mexico. Seas will peak at 8 to 12 ft under the strongest winds. This front is going to move southeast of the Gulf late tonight, which will allow winds across the west-central and southwest Gulf to decrease below gale force late this evening. Seas will fall below 8 ft by Sat morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details about the Gale Warning and the Significant Swell Event. EASTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: Gale-force winds are forecast by the METEO-FRANCE, in the western part of the marine zone of IRVING, from 13/00Z to 13/12Z. Please refer to the METEO- FRANCE High Seas Warning, at https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ begins near 08N13W and continues to 04N30W and to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 15W and 28W. Similar convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 35W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more information about a Gale Warning in the western Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extends from central Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico. A warm front is over the eastern Gulf extending from SW Florida to the Florida/Alabama border. Outside of the gale force winds, a recent scatterometer pass noted fresh to strong southerly winds over the central Gulf basin to 84W, including the Yucatan Channel. Recent buoy observations note seas of 6 to 8 ft in the area of these winds. For the forecast, southerly winds will continue to increase across the western Gulf today ahead of the cold front. Winds and seas will diminish Sat and Sun as the front shifts southeast of the basin and high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. Looking ahead, another front may enter the northwestern Gulf early Mon, and move to southeast of the Gulf by late Tue night, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas, with winds possibly reaching gale force over the west-central and southwest Gulf Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1022 mb high at the central Atlantic near 26N53W is supporting a trade-wind pattern across much of the basin. Fresh trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted over the central Caribbean. Fresh SE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are also noted in the NW Caribbean. Mainly moderate winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted elsewhere. Mostly fair weather conditions prevail across the basin under the influence of a middle to upper-level anticyclone covering the central and western Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas will diminish this afternoon and evening as the high shifts eastward ahead of a cold front. Fresh with locally strong SE winds and moderate seas over the northwestern Caribbean will persist through tonight ahead of this cold front, which is expected to weaken and stall across the Yucatan Channel Sat and Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds may resume across the central basin Sun night into Mon as high pressure develops north of the region. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about a Significant Swell Event. A stationary front extends from the central Atlantic near 31N60W westward to near 28N73W, where it transitions to a warm front and extends to near Jupiter, Florida. No significant convection is noted along this boundary at this time. Moderate southerly winds are south of the warm front, and moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted north of the front, where seas are 4 to 6 ft Farther east, a cold front related to the low pressure system supporting the east Atlantic significant swell event, extends from 31N17W to 17N30W. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are behind the front to 30W. Fresh to strong NW winds are noted behind a surface trough that extends from 31N25W to 20N35W. Outside the Significant Swell area, seas of 8 to 11 ft extend from 10N to 17N between 20W and the Lesser Antilles. Another area of 8 to 11 ft seas is from 20N to 31N between 55W and 43W. For the forecast, strong to near-gale force southerly winds and building seas will follow a warm front lifting northward across the waters north of the Bahamas and west of 70W through tonight. Winds will shift to the NW tonight off northeast Florida ahead of a cold front that will move off the coast by early Sat. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by late Sat. Winds and seas will diminish into Sun as high pressure builds eastward along 30N in the wake of the front. The front will weaken into Mon as it lifts northward as a warm front across the Bahamas. Looking ahead, another cold front may move off the northeast Florida coast Mon night or Tue morning, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and building seas north of 28N by Tue afternoon. $$ Mora