000 AXNT20 KNHC 121201 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Fri Jan 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... EASTERN ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT: Large NW swell generated by gale to strong gale winds related to a 981 mb low pressure southwest of the Azores are sustaining 12 to 20 ft seas north of 18N, between 35W and 45W. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are seen within this same area. This low is expected to remain quasi- stationary through this evening before moving slowly eastward early Sat morning through Sat night. This should allow seas to gradually subside while shifting eastward. Anticipate seas to drop below 12 ft Sat night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING: A cold front is about to exit the Texas coastline into the northwestern Gulf this morning. As this front sinks southeastward across the western Gulf this afternoon and evening, NW to N winds behind it will increase to between near-gale to gale force. Seas will peak at 8 to 12 ft under the strongest winds. This front is going to move southeast of the Gulf late tonight, which will allow winds across the west-central and southwest Gulf to decrease below gale force late this evening. Seas will fall below 8 ft by Sat morning. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details. EASTERN ATLANTIC GALE WARNING: Gale-force winds are forecast by the METEO-FRANCE, in the marine zone of IRVING, from 13/00Z to 13/12Z. Please refer to the METEO- FRANCE High Seas Warning, at https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of northern Liberia, then reaches westward to 06N14W. An ITCZ continues southwestward from 06N14W across 04N25W to 03N38W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate convection is found up to 100 nm along either side of these features. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more information about a Gale Warning. A cold front is along the eastern Texas coastline this morning. Scattered showers are occurring near and up to 60 nm southeast of the front. Strong to near-gale SW to W winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are seen at the northwestern Gulf. Fresh to strong S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are present at the north-central Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft exist for the west-central and southwestern Gulf. Moderate to fresh S winds with 3 to 5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, southerly winds will continue to increase across the western Gulf today ahead of the cold front about to enter the northwestern Gulf. Winds to gale force and rough seas will follow the front over the western Gulf, as it reaches from Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche tonight. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish Sat and Sun as the front shifts southeast of the basin and high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. Another front may enter the northwestern Gulf early Mon, and move to southeast of the Gulf by late Tue night, followed by fresh to strong with locally near-gale northerly winds and building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1022 mb high at the central Atlantic near 28N52W is supporting a trade-wind pattern across much of the basin. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are noted at the south-central basin, north of northwestern Colombia. Fresh to strong SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas dominate the northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh ENE to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin, except light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas near Costa Rica and Panama. For the forecast, the 1022 mb high will prolong fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean this morning. Winds and seas will diminish this afternoon and evening as the high shifts eastward, ahead of a cold front. Fresh with locally strong SE winds and moderate seas over the northwestern Caribbean will persist through tonight ahead of this cold front, which is expected to weaken and stall across the Yucatan Channel Sat and Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds may resume across the central basin Sun night into Mon as high pressure develops north of the region. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about a Significant Swell Event. A stationary front extends southwestward from southeast of Bermuda across 31N61W and the northwest Bahamas to the Florida Straits. Scattered showers and evident along and up to 100 nm northwest of this boundary. A cold front curves southwestward from west of Madeira across 31N19W to 14N40W, then continues westward as a shear line to east of the Leeward Islands at 17N60W. Patchy showers are seen up to 50 nm along either side of these features. Convergent trade winds are causing scattered moderate convection from 03N to 07N between 38W and 47W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the Significant Swell area, moderate to fresh N to ENE winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are present from 05N to 17N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, and also from 17N to 28N between 45W and 55W. For the central Atlantic, a 1022 mb high near 28N52W is supporting gentle winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in moderate mixed swells north of 18N between 55W and 65W. To the west, gentle to moderate E to SW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail north of 20N between 65W and the Florida/Georgia coast. For the forecast, the stationary front is going to move eastward again later this morning, keeping moderate to fresh W winds and moderate seas north of 28N and east of 60W through this evening. Increasing SE winds along with building seas are anticipated off NE Florida this afternoon ahead of the next cold front, which should move off the NE Florida coast tonight into Sat morning. These winds will reach strong to near-gale force before diminishing Sat afternoon as the front pushes eastward, reaching from 31N70W to western Cuba. Rough seas will linger north of 29N until late Sat night. Looking ahead, a third cold front may move off the northeast Florida coast Mon night or Tue morning, following by fresh to strong NW winds and building seas north of 28N by Tue afternoon. $$ Chan