000 AXNT20 KNHC 120602 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jan 12 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0540 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT... A storm system that is to the north of 31N is generating very large NW swell. Sea heights that are higher than 12 feet cover the areas that are from 15N northward between 20W and 45W. The sea heights are 20 feet or higher from 30N northward between 25W and 38W. Rough seas are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean between 31N50W 24N60W 08N60W and from 15N northward from 20W eastward. Moderate seas are elsewhere. The swell will subside gradually, with the sea heights going to lower than 12 feet on Saturday night. A cold front passes through 31N19W 28N20W 20N28W 15N40W. A shear line continues from 15N40W to 15N50W and 18N61W. Precipitation: rainshowers are possible from 13N northward from 60W eastward. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 12/0000 UTC are: 0.43 in Bermuda, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. GULF OF MEXICO GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... A cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf of Mexico on Friday morning. Gale-force NW to N winds, and sea heights will range from 8 feet to 11 feet, from 19N to 28N between 95W and 98W, including within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz in Mexico. Expect strong to near gale-force winds, and sea heights from 8 feet to 9 feet, elsewhere from 21N to 31N between 86W and 97W. The forecast for Friday night is for the cold front to pass from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz in Mexico. Expect NW to N gale-force winds, and sea heights from 10 feet to 13 feet, 19N to 20N between 95W and 97W, including within 60 nm of the coast of Veracruz in Mexico. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING in the METEO-FRANCE MARINE ZONE IRVING... Gale-force winds are forecast by the METEO-FRANCE, in the western part of the marine zone IRVING, continuing to 13/0000 UTC at least. Please, refer to the METEO-FRANCE forecast for the IRVING marine zone, at https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/bulletin/ WONT50_LFPW/20240111193859669345, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 06N11W, to 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W, to 05N20W 03N30W 03N38W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 08N southward from 50W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Slight to moderate seas are in the coastal waters from Louisiana to NE Mexico. Slight seas are in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Strong to near gale-force E to SE winds are from 24N northward from 90W eastward. Moderate and fresh SE winds are in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Southerly winds will increase across the northern Gulf overnight ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the Texas coast Fri morning. Winds to gale force and rough seas will follow the front over the western Gulf, as it reaches from Apalachicola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Fri night. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish Sat and Sun as the front shifts southeast of the basin and high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. Another front may enter the northwestern Gulf early Mon, and move to southeast of the Gulf by late Tue night, followed by fresh to strong with locally near-gale northerly winds and building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Rough seas are in the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea, roughly about 210 nm off the coast of Colombia and about 240 nm to the south of Jamaica. Moderate seas cover the rest of the Caribbean Sea from Jamaica southward from 81W eastward. Slight seas are in the rest of the area. Fresh to strong easterly winds are in the central one- third of the area. Moderate to fresh NE winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. Fresh to strong SE winds are within 120 nm to the north of Honduras between 85W and 87W. Fresh SE winds are elsewhere from 83W westward. Moderate SE winds are in the remainder of the area that is from 12N northward from 80W westward. Gentle winds are from 12N southward from 80W westward. Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere throughout the area. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 12/0000 UTC are: 0.20 in Guadeloupe, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. High pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong with locally near-gale trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean into Fri. Winds and seas will diminish over the central Caribbean by late Fri as the high pressure shifts eastward, ahead of a cold front. SE winds will increase along with building seas over the northwestern Caribbean through Fri night ahead of the cold front, which is expected to stall across the Yucatan Channel Sat and Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds may resume Sun night into Mon as high pressure develops north of the region. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the forecast for the central Atlantic Ocean the Significant Swell Event. Fresh to moderate winds cover most of the areas that are between 40W and 60W. Mostly moderate to some fresh winds cover the rest of the Atlantic Ocean that is to the south and the southeast and away from the frontal boundary that is related to the Significant Swell Event. A cold front passes through 31N61W to 26N74W. The front is stationary from 26N74W, to the NW Bahamas, through the Straits of Florida, to the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh NE winds are within 160 nm to the north of the front between 70W and the Bahamas. Fresh SW winds are within 100 nm on the southern side of the front between 60W and 65W. Fresh SE winds are within 120 nm to the north of Hispaniola between 70W and 72W. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere from 60W westward. Moderate seas are from 60W westward. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the north of 28N50W 26N65W 23N78W. A cold front extends from southeast of Bermuda to 26N74W, then continues as a stationary front across the northwest Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. As this front pushes eastward through Fri afternoon, residual W swell will persist near and ahead of the front over the waters southwest of Bermuda, north of 29N and east 63W. Looking ahead, SE winds will increase along with building seas off NE Florida Fri night ahead of the next cold front, which is expected to move off the NE Florida coast Fri night into Sat morning. These winds will diminish through Sat as the front reaches from Bermuda to western Cuba, with rough seas lingering north of 27N. A third cold front may move off the northeast coast Mon, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and building seas north of 28N Tue. $$ mt/pc