000
AXNT20 KNHC 111746
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Thu Jan 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Significant Swell: A storm system outside of our
area is generating very large NW swell behind its associated cold
front that extends from 31N22W to 17N41W. These large swells are 
found behind the front between 19W and 49.5W. Seas are currently 
peaking at 23 ft. Seas will continue to exceed 12 ft through the 
end of the week. 

Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to move off
the Texas coast into the Gulf Fri morning. Winds to gale force 
and rough seas will follow the front over the western Gulf, as it 
reaches from Apalachicola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Fri night. 
Winds will diminish below gale force late Fri and below strong
force Sat afternoon. 

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National 
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml 
for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues southwestward to 04N18.5W.
The ITCZ extends from 04N18.5W to 04N33W and to 01N48W. Scattered
moderate convection is ongoing within 150 nm either side of the 
Monsoon/ITCZ axis. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning for the western Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure of 1019 mb and its associated ridge dominate the 
the sensible weather over the Gulf. Thus, winds are gentle to 
moderate out of the SE to S and seas are in the 3-5 ft range.

For the forecast, southerly winds will increase over the northern
Gulf by this evening ahead of the next cold front expected to 
move off the Texas coast Fri morning. Winds to gale force and 
rough seas will follow the front over the western Gulf, as it 
reaches from Apalachicola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Fri night. 
Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish Sat and Sun as the 
front shifts southeast of the basin and high pressure builds over 
the northern Gulf. Another front may move off the Texas coast on 
Mon, followed by strong winds over the western Gulf Mon night. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1026 mb high pressure well to the
S of Bermuda and lower pressures in northern South America 
support strong easterly winds in the south-central Caribbean and 
moderate to fresh trades over the remainder eastern half of the 
basin where seas remain in the 6-9 ft range. Gentle to moderate SE
winds are ongoing over the NW Caribbean with 3-5 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure building north of the region will
support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas 
across the central Caribbean into Fri. SE winds will increase 
along with building seas over the NW Caribbean Thu night through 
Fri night ahead of a cold front expected to stall across the 
Yucatan Channel Sat and Sun. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds 
are forecast to resume Sun into Mon night as high pressure 
develops to the northeast of Puerto Rico.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Feature section for details about the 
ongoing significant swell event overt the eastern Atlantic.

Moderate to fresh SW winds are ahead of a cold front extending 
from Bermuda to 31N67W where it stalls to the central Bahamas. 
Seas to 9 ft are associated with the front, extending to 73W and N
of 28.5N. Gentle or weaker winds are present behind the front. 
Surface high pressure of 1026 mb and associated ridging dominates 
the central subtropical Atlantic waters. Over the eastern 
Atlantic, a cold front extends from 31N22W to 17N41W. Very large 
swell continue behind this front. See the Special Features Section
for more details.

For the forecast W of 55W, a frontal boundary is stalling from 
roughly Bermuda to the central Bahamas. Large W swell persists 
through the afternoon over the waters southwest of Bermuda, north 
of 29N between 65W and 70W. The northern portion of the front 
north of 26N will be reinforced today and continue to move east of
the area through Fri night, while the southern portion lifts 
northward as a warm front across the waters west of 70W through 
Fri. Looking ahead, SE winds will increase along with building 
seas off NE Florida Fri night ahead of the next cold front, which 
is expected to move off the NE Florida coast Fri night into Sat 
morning. These winds will diminish through Sat as the front 
reaches from Bermuda to western Cuba, with rough seas lingering 
north of 27N. A weak front may move off the northeast coast Mon. 

$$
KRV