000 AXNT20 KNHC 102145 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Jan 11 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central and East Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front generating gales extends from 31N27W to 20N40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm east of the front and N of 28N. Near gale to gale force winds are on either side of the front, N of 29N within 60 nm east of the front, and N of 27N W of the front to 40W. Large NW swell has been generated from the storm system associated with this front, with seas greater than 12 ft covering the waters N of 20N between 25W and 55W, peaking around 26 ft. The winds will slowly diminish, falling below gale force Thu. The large swell will slowly subside while propagating eastward through the end of the week. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to move off the Texas coast into the Gulf of Mexico Fri morning. Winds to gale force and rough seas will follow the front over the western Gulf, as it reaches from Apalachicola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Fri night. Winds will diminish below gale force by this weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details on gales east of 35W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07.5N12.5W to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 05N27W to 03N41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 14W and 30W, and from 02N to 05N between 30W and 42W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Pleas see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on an upcoming gale warning over the western Gulf of Mexico. High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1017 mb high centered near 26N91W. Moderate to fresh southerly return flow prevails over the waters W of 95W. Light winds are found near the high center. Gentle to locally moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range in westerly swell E of 90W, and 4-6 ft W of 90W. For the forecast, southerly winds will increase over the northern Gulf by late Thu ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the Texas coast Fri morning. Winds to gale force and rough seas will follow the front over the western Gulf, as it reaches from Apalachicola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Fri night. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish Sat and Sun as the front shifts southeast of the basin and high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. Another front may move off the Texas coast on Mon, followed by gale-force winds over the western Gulf Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A frontal trough extends from western Cuba to off Belize. Fresh winds prevail over the central Caribbean, with moderate to fresh winds over the eastern Caribbean, and light to gentle winds over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the central Caribbean, 5-7 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 4-6 ft over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, the frontal trough will dissipate through tonight. High pressure building in the wake of the frontal trough will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean into Fri. Looking ahead, SE winds will increase along with building seas over the northwest Caribbean Thu night and Fri ahead of a cold front expected to stall across the Yucatan Channel Sat and Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the central Atlantic gale warning and associated significant swell. A cold front extends from 31N70W to western Cuba. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm east of the front N of 28N. Earlier gale force winds associated with this front have lifted N of the area. Strong to near- gale force winds continue N of 29N and E of the front to 60W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere E of the front to 60W. Gentle to moderate winds are found W of the front. Seas of 12 to 14 ft continue N of 29N between 68W and 78W, and 8-12 ft elsewhere N of 26N between 65W and 80W. Seas of 7-9 ft are noted over the remainder of the waters W of 60W. East of the front, a 1026 mb high is centered near 32N52W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. A cold front generating gales extends from 31N27W to 20N40W, with a trough extending from the front to 20N60W. Aside from the area of gale force winds, strong to near- gale force winds are found N of 25N within 120 nm east of the front, and N of 24N W of the front to 45W. Fresh to strong winds are noted within 60 nm N of the surface trough. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere over the discussion waters. Outside of the seas 12 ft or greater, seas of 8-12 ft are elsewhere N of 20N between 25W and 55W, with seas of 7-10 ft over the remainder of the discussion waters. For the forecast W of 55W, winds associated with the front will diminish through tonight as the main energy for the front lifts to the north of the area. Large swell will linger north of 27N into Thu night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas tonight, and then stationary from there to western Cuba. The northern portion of the front north of 27N will continue to move east of the area through Fri night, while the southern portion lifts northward as a warm front across the waters west of 70W through Fri. Looking ahead, SE winds will increase along with building seas off northeast Florida Fri night ahead of the next cold front, which is expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Fri night into Sat morning. These winds will diminish through Sat as the front reaches from Bermuda to western Cuba, with rough seas lingering north of 27N. A weak front may move off the northeast coast Mon. $$ AL