050 AXNT20 KNHC 101803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Jan 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING... A cold front passes through 31N73W, through the NW Bahamas, beyond NW Cuba. Expect gale-force SW to W winds, and very rough seas in S to SW swell, from 30N to 31N between 69W and 78W. Expect strong to near gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas in SE to S swell, elsewhere from 25N to 31N between 64W and 81W. Expect fresh to strong SE winds, and rough seas in NE swell, in the remainder of the area that is from 18N to 31N between 62W and 81W. These conditions are forecast to continue for the next 12 hours or so. Expect rough seas in the aforementioned areas until Friday morning. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 10/1200 UTC are: 0.25 in Freeport in the Bahamas, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN. Precipitation: scattered moderate, to isolated to widely scattered strong, is from 27N northward between 56W and the cold front. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N northward from 55W westward. ...EAST CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WIND WARNING AND SIGNIFICANT SWELL... A cold front passes through 31N30W to 21N40W 19N50W. A surface trough continues from 19N50W to 20N60W and 23N69W. Expect gale-force NW winds, and sea heights that range from 20 feet to 26 feet, from 26N to 31N between 35W and 41W. The sea heights are 12 feet or higher to the north of the frontal boundary from 70W eastward. Rough seas are elsewhere nearly everywhere to the east and to the southeast of frontal boundary. These conditions will last for the next 24 hours or so. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 300 nm to the east of the cold front from 27N northward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 17N northward from 60W eastward. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details about the three situations. ...THE METEO-FRANCE MARINE ZONE METEOR... Gale-force winds are forecast by the METEO-FRANCE, until 11/0300 UTC. Please, refer to the METEO-FRANCE forecast for the METEOR marine zone, at https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/ bulletin/WONT50_LFPW/20240110100321878294, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 07N13W, to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W, to 05N27W 01N35W 03N40W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Rough seas cover the areas that reach from the coastal waters of the NW Yucatan Peninsula, to the central Gulf, to the NE corner of the area. Moderate seas cover much of the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. The exception is for slight seas in the waters that are off the middle Texas Gulf coast. Strong to near gale-force NW winds were in the NE corner of the area during the earlier morning hours. Those wind speeds have slowed down with time. Moderate and fresh NW winds are in the NE corner of the area now. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the area. Winds have been diminishing across the Gulf as high pressure builds over the western Gulf this morning following a cold front that moved through the basin last night. Large swell over the far eastern Gulf will subside this afternoon. SE to S winds will increase over the northern Gulf by late Thu ahead of the next cold front expected to move off the Texas coast Fri morning. Winds to gale force and rough seas will follow the front over the western Gulf, as it reaches from Apalachicola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico Fri night. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish Sat and Sun as the front shifts southeast of the basin and high pressure builds over the northern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Rough seas are in the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate seas cover most of the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The exception is for slight seas in the coastal waters from the border of Colombia and Panama, to Belize. Strong E to SE winds are in the central sections of the area. Fresh NE winds are in the eastern one-third of the area. Moderate or slower winds are in the NW corner of the area. Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere throughout the area. A cold front extending from western Cuba to off Belize will become stationary and dissipate through tonight. High pressure building in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean into Fri. Looking ahead, SE winds will increase along with building seas over the northwest Caribbean Thu night and Fri ahead of a cold front expected to stall across the Yucatan Channel Sat and Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the forecast for the waters that are to the east of Florida; and for the central Atlantic Ocean gale-force winds and the Significant Swell Event. Gale force winds and very rough seas accompany a cold front extending from 31N73W to western Cuba. Winds will diminish through today as the main energy for the front lifts to the north of the area. Large swell will linger north of 27N into Thu night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the central Bahamas tonight, and stationary from there to western Cuba. The northern portion of the front north of 27N will continue to move east of the area through Fri night, while the southern portion lifts northward as a warm front across the waters west of 70W through Fri. Looking ahead, SE winds will increase along with building seas off northeast Florida Fri night ahead of the next front, expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Fri night into Sat morning. These winds will diminish through Sat as the front reaches from Bermuda to western Cuba, with rough seas lingering north of 27N. $$ mt/ec