000 AXNT20 KNHC 101055 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Jan 10 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N75W to 23N82W. Gale force S winds of 30 to 40 kt extend E of the front to 70W, mainly N of 29N. Gale force W winds of 30 to 35 kt extend W of the front to 79.5W, mainly north of 30N. The front is accompanied by a severe squall north of 29N. The squall line from 26.5N to 29N has weakened during the past 6 hours, but may still have scattered gale force gusts. Gale force winds will continue north of 29N between 69W and 79W through this morning, before diminishing and moving N of the area this afternoon. Seas of 15 to 20 ft north of 29N will subside by tonight. The front will weaken this evening as it reaches from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas. The squall line north of 29N will continue to contain severe wind gusts through this morning, as it moves E, before weakening significantly this afternoon. Central and East Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 31N33W to 23N40W to 21N45W to 20N55W, then continues as a surface trough to 22N67W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along and within 90 nm east of the cold front, mainly N of 27N. Gale force W to NW winds of 30 to 40 kt are occurring north of 27N between 30W and 42W. Seas are 17 to 25 ft in this are in large NW swell. The gale-force winds will slide eastward through late today, reaching 25W and mainly north of 27N. Meteo France has issued a Gale Warning for the Meteor marine zone through 11/0000 UTC. An expansive area of 12 ft seas or greater dominates the entire waters behind the front to 60W, with seas in excess of 20 ft where the gales are occurring. Peak seas are around 25 ft near 29N40W. This long period NW swell will cause hazardous seas to spread further, with 12 ft seas or greater reaching as far south as 15N and E of 50W by Thu. By late Friday, the 12 to 20 ft seas will be confined to areas north of 19N and east of 44W. The gales are forecast to end around midday Thu, but a large area of strong winds will continue over the NE Atlantic through Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast at https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details on gales east of 35W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from 05N19W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02.5N to 06N and between 16W and 43W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details about the Gale Warning for the NE Gulf. As of 0900 UTC, the cold front has moved southeast of the basin. A 1018 mb high pressure is centered over the western Gulf of Mexico near 24N95W. Winds over the eastern Gulf have diminished to fresh, with light to gentle winds in the western Gulf. Seas are still 12 to 14 ft across portions of the NE Gulf of Mexico in W swell, and the 8 to 11 ft seas cover the waters elsewhere over the eastern and central Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Seas have subsided to below 8 ft west of a line extending from 29N93W to 19N96W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across this far western section of the basin. For the forecast, fresh NW winds over the NE Gulf will diminish to moderate or weaker around sunrise today. Seas in the eastern Gulf will subside to below 12 ft late this morning, and to below 8 ft by this evening. High pressure currently centered over the western Gulf of Mexico will move E to the eastern Gulf tonight through early Thu. SE to S winds gradually increase across the basin Thu and Thu night as the next cold front approaches the coast of Texas. This front is expected to move into the NW Gulf early Fri morning and reach from the Florida Big Bend to the central Bay of Campeche by late Fri, and from Naples, FL to Cancun, Mexico early Sat before weakening. Strong to near-gale force winds will follow this front across the western and central Gulf of Mexico, possibly reaching gale force over the far western Gulf Fri. Conditions improve Sat night as high pressure builds over the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong easterly trade winds and 7 to 10 ft seas cover the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, mainly east of 79W. A weakening cold front has entered the NW Caribbean from the western tip of Cuba to Tulum, Mexico. Moderate N winds and 6 to 7 ft seas are over the Yucatan Channel behind the front. Elsewhere in the NW basin, moderate SSE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure ridging north of the basin and lower pressure over Colombia will support strong winds across the central Caribbean through early this morning. Winds over the most of the central Caribbean will then diminish to fresh, although strong winds will continue to pulse nightly near the coast of Colombia through the week. The aforementioned cold front will dissipate late this afternoon as it drifts SE. SE winds will increase to fresh to strong from the Gulf of Honduras to the Yucatan Channel Thu night and early Fri as the next cold front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. The front will slow down and weaken significantly as it approaches the Yucatan Channel Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning offshore NE Florida and a Gale Warning in the northern parts of the central and eastern basin. A cold front extends from 31N75W to the Straits of Florida near 24N81W, as of 0900 UTC. For information on the gales and squall line associated with this system, please see the Special Features section above. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere north of 25N and east of the front to 60W. Outside of the gale winds, strong to near-gale force winds cover the area north of 26N between 65W and the east coast of Florida. Seas of 8 to 20 ft prevail across the area, except less than 8 ft between the Bahamas and South Florida. Fresh winds are elsewhere across the entire area east of 60W. A 1029 mb high pressure centered near 34N58W extends a ridge southward to near 26N57W. Seas of 9 to 15 ft cover this area between 53W and 63W. Farther east, see the Special Features section above for information on the cold front, gales and very large seas across the eastern half of the Atlantic Ocean. From the ITCZ to 18N, between 40W and 62W, fresh trades with seas of 8 to 10 ft prevail in N swell. For the forecast W of 55W, the squall line that has been accompanying the cold front east of Florida will likely continue to bring severe wind gusts through the morning hours today as it moves E. Gale force winds will continue north of 29N between 69W and 79W through this morning before diminishing and moving north of the area this afternoon. The front will weaken this evening as it reaches from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas. Elsewhere, large northerly swell is occurring across the waters east of 65W, with seas heights of 10 to 14 ft. The swell will gradually subside over the next few days, and seas across the entire area will subside significantly Thu into Thu night as high pressure builds over the area. Southerly winds begin to increase off northeast Florida Fri as the next frontal system approaches from the W. The front is expected to reach from near 31N77W to South Florida early Sat and from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to western Cuba by late Sat. Strong winds are expected on both sides of the front N of 27N, along with building seas. $$ Hagen