098 AXNT20 KNHC 091214 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Jan 9 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1140 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Storm Warning: Southeast winds of 25 to 35 kt and seas of 8 to 12 ft are already occurring east of Florida this morning ahead of a cold front, that is forecast to emerge off the coast of NE Florida late this afternoon. Widespread sustained gale force winds of 35 to 45 kt are expected from midday today through late tonight to the north of 27.5N, extending from the east coast of Florida eastward to 70W. Sustained winds to 45 kt with frequent gusts of storm force are expected north of 30N between 77W and 80W late this afternoon through this evening. Then, the storm force conditions will move E, covering the area north of 30N between 74W and 77W tonight. The storm conditions will end before sunrise Wed, but gales will continue through Wed morning E of the front, north of 30N between 69W and 72W before the gales move N of 31N by Wed afternoon. By Wed evening, the front will be weakening as it reaches from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas. Seas will build to 15 to 20 ft by this evening north of 29N. A squall line containing severe thunderstorms is expected to occur along with the cold front as it passes over the waters east of Florida late this afternoon through late tonight. Seas will subside Thu as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from the coast of Mississippi to Tampico, Mexico. The front will reach from near Ft. Myers, FL to Cancun, Mexico by this evening, then move southeast of the basin late tonight. Sustained winds of 30 to 40 kt are currently occurring on both sides of the cold front north of 24N. South of 24N and west of 94W, NW winds of 30 to 40 kt are behind the front. Seas are 12 to 18 ft north of 24N, and 7 to 12 ft south of 24N. Sustained winds of 30 to 40 kt with higher gusts are expected to continue through early this evening before diminishing below gale force late this evening. A squall line containing extremely strong wind gusts, frequent lightning and possible water spouts is currently seen on satellite imagery along the cold front north of 25N. This squall line will continue to bring severe gusts as it moves eastward across the Gulf of Mexico through sunset today. Conditions quiet down Wed through Wed night as high pressure shifts E across the Gulf in the wake of the front. East-Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from 31N43W to 23N66W. Strong to near gale-force winds currently exist on either side of the front north of 27N and between 34W and 58W. Additionally, very large NW swell is occurring to the NW of this front. Seas greater than 12 ft are present north of 26N and between 20W and 66W. Gale force winds of 35 to 45 kt are expected north of 27N and east of 48W from late this afternoon through late Wed night. Seas of 20 to to 24 ft are expected with the gales. The aforementioned NW swell will spread seas of 12 ft or greater as far south as 16N by Thu. By Thu, the 12 to 22 ft seas will be north of 16N between 20W and 54W. The east Atlantic swell will gradually subside late Fri and Fri night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details about the three situations. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 06N18W. The ITCZ extends from from 06N18W to 01N39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 01N to 08N and east of 22W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details about the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Mexico, as well as the forecast for the next few days. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong mid-level anticyclonic flow is leading to subsidence and dry air over the basin. Strong trades cover the central Caribbean, with near-gale force ENE winds within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Strong SE winds are occurring in the NW Caribbean, including in the Gulf of Honduras, Yucatan Channel and lee of Cuba. Strong E winds are in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, fresh winds prevail. Seas in the central Caribbean are 8 to 11 ft, except 10 to 12 ft near the coast of Colombia. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the NW Caribbean, except 9 ft in the Yucatan Channel. Seas are 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered northeast of the basin and lower pressure over Colombia is supporting near-gale force NE to ENE winds within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Strong winds will prevail elsewhere in the central Caribbean through tonight. Fresh to strong SE to S winds in the northwestern Caribbean west of 83W will continue through today as a strong cold front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. The front will weaken significantly as it reaches the Yucatan Channel tonight, and winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish Wed and Wed night as high pressure shifts eastward across the central Gulf of Mexico. In the central Caribbean, winds will diminish to mainly fresh speeds by Wed afternoon, although winds will still pulse to strong at night in the south-central basin through late week. Southeasterly winds will increase over the western Caribbean to fresh to strong Thu night through Fri, as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Winds between Florida and 70W are SE to S 25 to 35 kt and increasing, with seas 8 to 12 ft. Scattered showers are moving offshore northern Florida now too. Please read the Special Features section for more details about the West Atlantic Storm Warning, to the east of Florida. East of 70W...A cold front extends from 31N43W to 23N60W to 23N66W and continues as a stationary front to Key Largo, FL. Fresh to near gale-force winds are present everywhere to the north and west of this frontal boundary, north of 23N between 43W and the east coast of Florida, along with very rough seas of 8 to 23 feet, highest near 31N52W. Fresh to near gale-force winds are also found southeast of the front, mainly north of 27N and west of 35W. Rough to very rough seas are evident in the area described. A surface ridge containing gentle winds extends from 23N35W to 21N54W. This area is experiencing NW swell of 7 to 10 ft. Farther south, fresh trades and 8 to 9 ft seas prevail from 04N to 17N between 30W and 62W. For the forecast, a cold front extends from 25N55W to 23N67W, and continues as a stationary front to the Upper Florida Keys. Southeast winds of near-gale force will increase to gale force by sunrise this morning ahead of a cold front and continue through late tonight or early Wed morning. Frequent gusts to storm force are expected tonight north of 30N and west of 74W, where a Storm Warning is in effect. The cold front will move off NE Florida early this evening. By Wed evening, the front will be weakening as it reaches from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas. A squall line containing severe thunderstorms is likely to occur along or just prior to the frontal passage offshore Florida from late this afternoon through tonight. Seas will subside Thu as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Southerly winds begin to increase east of northern and central Florida late Fri as the next frontal system approaches from the W. It is expected to reach from near 31N77W to South Florida early Sat and from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to western Cuba by late Sat. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of this front. $$ Hagen