937 AXNT20 KNHC 081111 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Jan 8 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Southerly winds will increase to gale force over the north-central Gulf of Mexico by midday today, associated with a warm front moving across the northern Gulf ahead of a cold front approaching from the Southern Plains. The cold front will enter the western Gulf of Mexico this evening, reach from Pensacola, FL to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, from near Ft. Myers, FL to Cancun, Mexico Tue evening, and move southeast of the basin late Tue night. Expect gale force winds of 30 to 40 kt along with very rough seas today through Tue, both ahead and following the front north of 24N, and over the western Gulf, off the Mexican states of Tamaulipas and Veracruz. Conditions will quickly improve early Wed. Seas will peak in the 14 to 17 ft range over the northern Gulf of Mexico. Severe thunderstorms with strong wind gusts are likely, especially over the NE and north-central Gulf of Mexico, between this afternoon and when the cold front passes. West Atlantic Gale Warning: Southerly winds will increase to gale force off the coast of northeast Florida Tue morning ahead of a cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Tue night. Expect winds to 40 kt with seas building to 13 to 21 ft over the water north of 28N and west of 69W on Tue and Tue night. Conditions will quickly improve Wed. Caribbean Gale Warning: Strong high pressure north of the area supports winds pulsing to minimal gale force within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia between Barranquilla and Cartagena for another couple of hours, until sunrise today. Seas are peaking now near 12 to 13 ft in this area. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will persist elsewhere off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela through Tue night before diminishing a bit for the second half of the week. Central Atlantic Gale Warning and Significant Swell: A strong low pressure in the far north Atlantic along 40N extends a cold front through 31N63W to the central Bahamas. The front will reach from near 31N39W to 23N55W to 22N65W early Tue, and from near 31N31W to 21N40W to 19N50W to 19N60W early Wed. Gale force NW winds are expected behind the front Tue afternoon through Wed, north of 26N between 23W and 49W. Prior to when the gales begin, from today through Tue morning, seas of 12 to 22 ft in NW swell is expected behind the front, north of 25N between 35W and 68W. During the time of the aforementioned gales, from Tue afternoon through Wed, seas of 12 to 25 ft are expected north of 18N between 23W and 64W. The highest seas of 20 to 25 ft are forecast to occur Mon night through Wed, north of 24N between 29W and 59W. Please refer the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details on all of the special features. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W and continues southwestward to 05N17W. The ITCZ extends from 05N17W to 05N38W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 07N and between 07W and 29W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for details about the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Mexico. Gale force winds in the Gulf of Mexico are forecast to begin by 1500 UTC this morning, and end Tuesday evening. A stationary front extends from Havana Cuba to the north coast of the Yucatan Peninsula to the SW Bay of Campeche near 20N96W. No deep convection near this boundary. Farther north, an active subtropical jet stream brings mid to upper level moisture along with scattered showers across the central, north-central and northeastern Gulf. The pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high pressure centered over Georgia and lower pressures across Texas and Mexico support strong to near gale-force SE winds and 8 to 10 ft seas across a large portion of the basin, north of 20N and west of 86W. Elsewhere, fresh winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, the stationary front will begin to lift northward as a warm front this morning, accompanied by scattered strong to severe thunderstorms as southeasterly winds increase to near gale force across much of the basin. A very strong cold front will enter the western Gulf of Mexico this evening, reach from Pensacola, FL to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, from near Ft. Myers, FL to Cancun, Mexico Tue evening, and move southeast of the basin late Tue night. Widespread sustained gale force winds are expected to begin by late this morning over the northern Gulf, with gusts reaching strong gale force speeds. Near-gale force winds are expected for most of the Gulf of Mexico on both sides of the front, today through Tue evening, with several areas experiencing sustained gale force winds. A squall line containing severe thunderstorms is likely to occur over the northern Gulf of Mexico just prior to the frontal passage. Conditions quiet down Wed through Thu as high pressure shifts E across the central Gulf in the wake of the front. Southeasterly winds begin to increase late Thu across the basin as the next cold front approaches from the W. The front is expected to move into the NW Gulf early Fri and reach from the Florida panhandle to the Yucatan Peninsula by late Fri. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas will follow in the wake of this front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section for details about the Gale Warning for the south-central Caribbean Sea. Near gale to minimal gale force winds are occurring near the coast of Colombia with seas 12 to 13 ft. Strong trades and 8 to 12 ft seas are elsewhere south of 16.5N between 71W and 80W. Fresh trades are elsewhere across the Caribbean with 4 to 7 ft seas. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America will support strong winds in the south-central Caribbean through Tue night, pulsing to near-gale force at night offshore Colombia. Gale force winds currently occurring near the coast of Colombia will diminish below gale force around sunrise this morning. Southeast to south winds in the northwestern Caribbean will increase to fresh to strong tonight through Tue as a strong cold front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. The front will weaken significantly as it reaches the Yucatan Channel Tue night, and winds in the NW Caribbean will diminish Wed and Wed night as high pressure shifts eastward across the central Gulf of Mexico. In the central Caribbean, winds will diminish to mainly fresh speeds by midweek. Southeasterly winds begin to increase over the western Caribbean Thu, reaching fresh to strong speeds Fri and Fri night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about the Gale Warning for the west Atlantic and central Atlantic Gale Warning and significant swell event. A cold front enters the Atlantic near 31N63W and continues southwestward to the central Bahamas near 24N76W, then continues as a stationary front to near Havana, Cuba. Fresh to near gale- force winds are found north of 28N and between 47W and 73W on both sides of the front. Seas in these waters are 7 to 12 ft. Farther east, another cold front passes through 31N22W to 25N31W, then continues as a stationary front to 21N40W to 21N50W. A few showers are present near the front, mainly north of 25N and east of 33W. Moderate N-NE winds are occurring within 120 nm to the north of the frontal boundary. Seas are 10 to 15 ft in NW swell from the front extending northward. Seas are 8 to 11 ft elsewhere north of 11N between 35W and 62W, and also north of 21N between 22W and 35W. Seas are 4 to 7 ft south of 28N and west of 63W. Fresh to locally strong ENE trade winds are from 07N to 19N between 40W and 62W. A surface ridge with gentle winds extends from 31N32W to 25N50W to 24N70W, anchored by a 1023 mb high near 29N38W and a 1022 mb high near 27N46.5W. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N63W to the central Bahamas near 24N76W. Fresh to strong winds will continue on both sides of the front north of 28N and east of 73W as it moves eastward. The front will reach from near 27N55W to 24N70W and stationary to 24N80W this evening, then become stationary Tue evening near 21N55W to 25N74W. Southeast winds will increase to strong to near gale force west of 70W tonight, then increase to gale force Tue through Tue night north of 28N and west of 70W as a cold front approaches from the west. The cold front will move off NE Florida early Tue evening. By Wed evening, the front will be weakening as it reaches from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas. Very rough seas will continue Wed night east of Florida and northeast of the Bahamas. A squall line containing strong to severe thunderstorms may occur just prior to the frontal passage late Tue into early Wed. Seas will subside Thu and Thu night as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Southerly winds begin to increase east of northern and central Florida late Fri as the next frontal system approaches from the W. $$ Hagen