000 AXNT20 KNHC 070419 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sun Jan 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: Broad ridging will build in to the north of the Caribbean on Sun. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Colombia will lead to gale-force NE to E winds Sun night within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Seas will peak around 12 ft with the strongest winds. Winds tonight and Mon night will peak at near-gale force in the same area. Significant Swell Event: A hurricane-force low pressure in the far north Atlantic is generating a large region of NW swell. Seas greater than 12 ft extend north of 27N and between 39W and 57W, peaking near 15 ft around 31N46W. This large swell will spread toward the southeast tonight through Sun. Seas will decrease into early next week ahead of the next storm system. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the three Special Features discussed above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 05N18W. The ITCZ extends from 05N18W to 06N35W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from west-central Florida to near 24N87W, where it transitions into a stationary front to near Veracruz, Mexico. A few showers are seen ahead of the front in the SE Gulf. No deep convection is present in the rest of the Gulf. A weak pressure pattern dominates the Gulf waters, sustaining moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will become stationary Sun afternoon from the Straits of Florida to 20N95W. A very strong cold front is expected to enter the western Gulf Mon evening and move southeast of the basin late Tue night. Strong to near gale force SE to S winds will begin in advance of the cold front, Sun night into early Mon, as a warm front advances northward across the basin, which should result in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Gale force winds are expected by midday Mon over the north-central Gulf, with gusts reaching strong gale force speeds. Strong to near gale force winds are also expected across most of the basin by that same time. Strong to severe thunderstorms will likely accompany the cold front over portions of the northern Gulf. Several areas of the Gulf will experience sustained winds of gale force on both sides of the front. Conditions quiet down Wed through Thu as high pressure in the wake of the front shifts E across the central Gulf. This will allow for moderate return flow to set up over the far western Gulf. By late Thu, moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected across most of the basin as the high pressure will have shifted E of northern Florida. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1024 mb high pressure system centered near 30N60W extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in NW Colombia support strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds in the south- central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Fresh to strong easterly winds are occurring in the Gulf of Honduras, along with seas of 3-6 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and seas of 3-6 ft prevail in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America will support fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia through the forecast period, pulsing to near-gale force at night. Winds near the coast of Colombia will reach gale force Sun night. Looking ahead, SE to S winds in the northwestern Caribbean are expected to increase early next week as a strong cold front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. Winds will diminish Wed and Wed night as high pressure shifts eastward across the central Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details about the Significant Swell in the Atlantic. A cold front is situated offshore NE Florida, extending from 31N79W to near Daytona Beach. A few showers are seen affecting the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the 1024 mb high pressure positioned near 30N60W and the aforementioned cold front support fresh to near gale-force winds north of 25N and west of 66W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N33W to 25N43W, where it becomes a stationary front that continues west-southwestward to 22N55W and to 22N70W. Scattered moderate convection is found ahead of the front to 25W and north of 27N. Fresh to strong winds are found north of 25N and between 25W and 40W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are occurring within 120 nm north of the remainder of the cold and stationary front. Seas in the areas described are 6-10 ft. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by broad ridging, which is sustaining moderate to locally fresh easterly winds in the deep tropics, mainly south of 20N and west of 40W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, the front off NE Florida is forecast to reach from near 31N75W to South Florida early Sun, from near 31N58W to the central Bahamas early Mon and from near 24N55W to 22N70W early Tue. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of this front N of 28N as it moves eastward Sun through Mon. The eastern part of the front will continue to E of 55W as a cold front late Tue into Wed, while the rest of the front stalls and weakens through midweek. Looking ahead to Mon night through Wed, gale force southerly winds are expected to precede yet another strong cold front over the waters east of NE Florida, while strong to near gale force southerly winds are likely elsewhere N of 26N and W of 65W. The gales are likely early Tue through early Wed, N of 28N between Florida and 70W. Scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may precede this front. By late Wed, this front will be weakening as it extends from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas and to western Cuba, but very rough seas will continue Wed night east of Florida and northeast of the Bahamas. These conditions will slowly subside Thu and Thu night as modest high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. $$ Delgado