195 AXNT20 KNHC 062328 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sun Jan 7 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: The cold front in the Gulf of Mexico is expected to move across the waters off northeast Florida in a few hours. Earlier scatterometer pass reveals gale- force S winds are present offshore northern Florida north of 29N and west of 78W. Seas range 8 to 12 ft, highest seas are noted with the strongest winds. The strong winds off the Florida coast will improve Sun into Sun night ahead of the next strong cold front early next week. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure ridging will build in to the north of the Caribbean on Sun. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Colombia will lead to gale-force NE to E winds Sun night within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Seas will peak around 12 ft with the strongest winds. Winds tonight and Mon night will peak at near-gale force in the same area. Significant Swell Event: A mid-latitude low pressure in the north Atlantic is generating a large region of NW swell. Seas greater than 12 ft extend north of 28N and between 41W and 60W, peaking near 15 ft between 50W and 55W. This large swell will spread toward the southeast tonight through Sun. The sea heights will peak at 14 to 15 ft north of 29N between 35W and 57W through Sun afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the three Special Features discussed above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W to 07N14W. The ITCZ continues from 07N15W to 06N34W to 02N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 13W and 31W and from 00N to 06N between 35W and 49W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... As of 21Z, a cold front extends from the north of Tampa, FL near 29N83W to 23N89W then stationary from that point to 20N95W. While the squall line has deteriorated, showers and thunderstorms still continue ahead of the front across South Florida and the Florida Keys,N of 24N and E of 85W. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are occurring ahead of the front. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds are noted behind the front. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in the eastern Gulf. Across the remainder of the basin behind the front, light to gentle N to NE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will become stationary Sun afternoon from the Straits of Florida to 20N95W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are out ahead of the front along a squall line that is presently in the southeastern Gulf. Looking ahead, a very strong cold front is expected to enter the western Gulf Mon evening and move southeast of the basin Tue night. Strong to near gale force SE to S winds will begin in advance of the cold front, Sun night into early Mon, as a warm front advances northward across the basin, which should result in scattered showers and thunderstorms. Gale force winds are expected by early Mon afternoon over the north-central Gulf, with gusts possibly reaching the high end of the gale force speed range. Strong to near gale force winds are also expected across most of the basin by that same time. Strong to severe thunderstorms will likely accompany the cold front over portions of the northern Gulf. Conditions quiet down Wed through Thu s high pressure in the wake of the front shifts E across the central Gulf. This will allow for moderate return flow to set up over the far western Gulf. By late Thu, moderate to fresh E to SE winds are expected across just about the entire basin as the high pressure will have shifted E of northern Florida. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong high pressure system north of the basin extends southward into the Caribbean Sea, suppressing the development of deep convection. Strong ENE to E trades prevail in the south- central Caribbean offshore Colombia, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Fresh SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are found in the Gulf of Honduras northward to the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, winds are moderate to fresh with seas of 3 to 6 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America will support fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia through the forecast period, pulsing to near-gale force at night. Winds near the coast of Colombia will reach gale force Sun night. Looking ahead, SE to S winds in the northwestern Caribbean are expected to increase again early next week as a strong cold front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. Winds will diminish Wed and Wed night as high pressure shifts eastward across the central Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details about the Gale Warning off NE Florida and Significant swell in the Atlantic. Between the east coast of Florida and 70W and north of 24N, strong to near-gale force S winds are present with seas of 6 to 10 ft. Scattered moderate convection extends from offshore the east coast of Florida, mainly north of 24N and west of 75W. Farther south, across the Straits of Florida, SE winds are gentle to moderate with seas to 3 ft. A 1023 mb high pressure centered near 32N64W extends surface ridging southeastward, leading to gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds north of 27N between 55W and 67W. However, large N to NE swell within this area is producing 8 to 12 ft seas. East of the ridge, A cold front extends from 31N37W to 23N54W, where it continues as a stationary front to 22N70W. Scattered moderate convection is observed north of 25N ahead of the front to 27W. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are north of 21N between 32W and 68W, where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Farther east, a stationary front extends from 31N22W to 27N31W. Winds near this front are mostly gentle. Surface ridging extends ahead of the front, allowing for gentle to moderate trades and seas of 6 to 10 ft north of 20N and E of 35W. South of 20N, moderate trades and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, a strong cold front is expected to move across the waters off northeast Florida this evening. This front is forecast to reach from near 31N75W to South Florida early Sun, from near 31N58W to the central Bahamas early Mon and from near 24N55W to 22N70W early Tue. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of this front N of 28N as it moves eastward. The eastern part of the front will continue to E of 55W as a cold front late Tue into Wed, while the rest of the front stalls and weakens through midweek. Looking ahead to Mon night through Wed, gale force southerly winds are expected to precede yet another strong cold front over the waters east of NE Florida, while strong to near gale force southerly winds are likely elsewhere N of 26N and W of 65W. Scattered strong to possibly severe thunderstorms may precede this front. By late Wed, this next front will be weakening as it extends from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas and to western Cuba, but very rough seas will continue Wed night east of Florida and northeast of the Bahamas. These conditions will slowly subside Thu and Thu night as modest high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. $$ AReinhart