000 AXNT20 KNHC 061110 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Jan 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: As of 0900 UTC, a cold front extends from Pensacola, FL to Veracruz, Mexico. A squall line containing strong to severe thunderstorms precedes the front and extends from 29.5N83W to 25N87.5W at 1000 UTC. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere N of 24N and E of 88W. Near-gale to gale force winds are occurring within the area of strong convection. Sustained gale force winds are forecast to end over the NE Gulf of Mexico around 1200 UTC today, but gusts in thunderstorms could reach gale force through 1500Z, before the thunderstorms weaken later today as they move eastward. Seas are currently 8 to 12 ft across the NE Gulf of Mexico but will subside significantly by this afternoon. Atlantic Gale Warning: The cold front in the northern Gulf of Mexico is expected to move across the waters off northeast Florida by today. Strong to near-gale force southerly winds offshore Florida will increase to gale force later this morning off northern Florida and continue into this afternoon before diminishing by this evening. Seas are forecast to build to around 13 ft by midday today within the area of strongest winds. Conditions will improve Sun into Sun night ahead of the next strong cold front early next week. Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: High pressure ridging will build in to the north of the Caribbean Sun. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Colombia will lead to gale force NE to E Sun night within 90 nm of the coast of Colombia. Seas will peak around 12 ft with the strongest winds. Winds tonight and Mon night will peak at near-gale force in the same area. Significant Swell Event: A mid-latitude low pressure in the north Atlantic is generating a large region of NW swell. Seas greater than 12 ft extend north of 29N and between 42W and 63W, peaking near 15 ft around 31N52W. This large swell will spread toward the southeast through the weekend. By Sun morning, the area of 12 ft seas or greater will be located north of 26N between 35W and 52W. The sea heights will peak at 14 to 16 ft north of 29N between 35W and 57W now through Sun afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the three Special Features discussed above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 16W and 24W, and from 00N to 05N between 39W and 52W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning in the northeastern Gulf as well as a description of features and convection over the Gulf of Mexico. The area of seas 8 ft or greater is located north of 25N between 84W and 91W. Strong to gale force winds are north of 24N and east of 89W. West of 91W, moderate N winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. Over the SE Gulf south of 24N, fresh southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will reach from Cedar Key, FL to Veracruz around noon today, then become stationary Sun afternoon from the Straits of Florida to 20N95W. Strong to gale force southerly winds, and scattered to numerous thunderstorms will precede the cold front across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico through early this morning. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe, with gusty winds. Winds and seas will subside tonight. Looking ahead, a very strong cold front is expected to enter the western Gulf Mon evening and move southeast of the basin Tue night. Strong to near-gale force SE to S winds will begin in advance of the cold front, Sun night into early Mon, as a warm front advances northward across the basin, which will produce scattered thunderstorms. Then, near-gale force winds are expected across most of the Gulf of Mexico on both sides of the cold front Mon afternoon through Tue, with several areas of embedded gale force winds likely along with very rough seas. Strong to severe thunderstorms will likely accompany the cold front over portions of the northern Gulf. Conditions quiet down Wed and Wed night as high pressure in the wake of the front shifts E across the central Gulf. This will allow for moderate return flow to set up over the far western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong mid-level anticyclone prevails over the Caribbean Sea, leading to subsidence and dry air. Strong ENE to E trades prevail in the south-central Caribbean offshore Colombia, where seas are 7 to 10 ft. Fresh to strong SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are found in the Gulf of Honduras northward to the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, winds are moderate to fresh with 3 to 6 ft seas. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America will support fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia through the forecast period, pulsing to near-gale force at night. Winds near the coast of Colombia are forecast to reach gale force Sun night. Fresh to strong southeast winds will continue in the northwestern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras through early today as a cold front remains north of the area. Looking ahead, SE to S winds in the northwestern Caribbean are expected to increase again early next week as a strong cold front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. Winds will diminish Wed and Wed night as high pressure shifts E across the central Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details about the Gale Warning off NE Florida and Significant swell in the Atlantic. Between the east coast of Florida and 77W, strong to near-gale force southerly winds and seas 7 to 8 ft are occurring. These winds and seas have increased significantly over the past 6 hours. Scattered moderate convection has also moved offshore central and northern Florida, mainly north of 27N and west of 75W. Farther south, across the Old Bahama Channel and Straits of Florida, SE winds are moderate to locally fresh. A 1025 mb high pressure centered near 33N69W extends surface ridging southeastward, leading to gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds north of 27N between 62W and 72W. However, large N to NE swell within this area is producing sea heights of 8 to 11 ft. A cold front extends from 31N43.5W to 24N55W, then stationary front to 22N70W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 24N to 31N between 35W and 48W. Fresh to strong winds are north of 27.5N between 36W and 52W, where seas are 8 to 15 ft. Large swell described in the Special Features section above extends westward from there to 70W, with seas 8 ft or greater extending southward to 25W. A 1017 mb high pressure is analyzed near 29N34W. A cold front extends from 31N23.5W to 28N28.5W, then stationary to 26.5N34W to 28N38.5W. Winds near this weak front are mostly gentle. A 1019 mb high pressure is analyzed near 29.5N19W. Surface ridging and gentle winds extend within a couple hundred nm either side of a line from 29.5N19W to 24N37W to 21N53W to 19.5N62W. Fresh ENE trade winds prevail in the deep tropics from 03N to 16N between 40W and 55W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, strong southerly winds offshore Florida will increase to gale force later this morning off northern Florida in advance of a cold front that is expected to move across the waters off northeast Florida by late today. This front is forecast to reach from near 31N74W to South Florida early Sun, from near 31N58W to the central Bahamas early Mon and from near 23N55W to 22N70W early Tue. On Sat night through Mon, after the gales end, fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of this front N of 28N as it moves eastward. Looking ahead to Mon night through Wed, gale force southerly winds are expected to precede yet another strong cold front over the waters east of NE Florida, while strong to near gale force southerly winds are likely elsewhere N of 26N and W of 65W. By late Wed, this next front will be weakening as it extends from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas, but very rough seas will continue in Wed night east of Florida and northeast of the Bahamas. $$ Hagen