795 AXNT20 KNHC 052344 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Jan 6 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico tonight into Sat. Strong to gale-force southerly winds and scattered to numerous thunderstorms will precede the cold front across the northern Gulf, moving from west to east today through tonight, with strong winds across the rest of the central and eastern Gulf. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe, with gusty winds. Seas will build to 11 ft in the northern Gulf tonight. Gale-force winds will end early Sat morning and conditions will quickly improve through Sat. Atlantic Gale Warning: Southerly winds offshore Florida will increase to strong late tonight in advance of a cold front that will move across the waters off NE Florida by late Sat. Gale force winds will develop on Sat morning off northern Florida, north of 29N between 77W and 80W. This front is forecast to reach from near 31N74W to South Florida early Sun and from near 31N56W to the central Bahamas early Mon. Seas are forecast to build to around 12 ft on Sat within the area of strongest winds. Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell, that will be generated by the next storm system, will move into the waters that are to the N of 29N between 51W and 65W this afternoon. This large swell will spread to the south and east through the weekend. By Sun morning, the area of 12 ft seas or greater will be located north of 26N between 35W and 51W. The sea heights will peak at 14 to 16 ft north of 29N between 37W and 55W from Sat afternoon through Sun night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the three Special Features discussed above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 10N14W and continues to 09N18W. The ITCZ extends from 09W18W to 01N48W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the ITCZ from 03N to 09N, west of 20W. Similar activity is also noted from 06N to 11N and W of 20W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning in the northern Gulf. A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida to the south-central Gulf near 25N88W, where it becomes a warm front to 1006 mb low pressure near 29N94W. A cold front extends from the low to 21N98W. In association with this frontal system, moderate to strong convection is observed north of 26N between 85W and 91W, east of the cold front. Over the same area in the NW Gulf, seas are 6 to 10 ft with fresh to strong SE winds ahead of the cold front veering W to NW behind the front. Over the central Gulf north of 22N between 91W to 87W, fresh SE to S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail, while moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are observed over the southwestern and eastern Gulf. For the forecast, the stationary front will lift northeastward as a warm front tonight into Sat as the low drags the cold front across basin. The cold front will extend from Panama City, FL to the central Bay of Campeche near 22N93W early Sat, then weaken Sat night as it reaches from Tampa Bay, FL to 22N93W. Strong to near gale force southerly winds, and scattered to numerous thunderstorms will precede the cold front across the northern half of the Gulf of Mexico, moving from west to east today through tonight, with gale force winds possible tonight in the north- central to northeastern Gulf. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe, with gusty winds. Winds and seas will subside Sat night. Looking ahead, the next cold front is expected Mon night, preceded and followed by strong to gale force winds and building seas Mon through Tue night. Conditions quiet down Wed and Wed night as high pressure in the wake of the front shifts E across the central Gulf. This will allow for moderate return flow to set up over the far western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong E trades and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail over the central Caribbean south of 14N to the the coast of Colombia. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean with seas of 2 to 4 ft. No significant convection is observed over the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America will support fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia through the forecast period, pulsing to near-gale force at night. Winds near the coast of Colombia could reach gale force Sun night. Southeast winds will increase to fresh to strong in the northwestern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras tonight into early Sat as a cold front remains north of the area. Looking ahead, southerly winds in the northwestern Caribbean are expected to increase again early next week as a strong cold front traverses the Gulf of Mexico. Winds diminish Wed and Wed night as high pressure shifts E across the central Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details about the Gale Warning off NE Florida and Significant Swell in the Atlantic. A cold front stretches from near 31N55W to 25N71W, transitioning to a stationary front from there to the Straits of Florida. No significant convection is noted with this boundary. Strong to near gale-force winds are on both sides of the front, along with seas of 8 to 13 ft, mainly north of 27N between 35W and 73W. Farther east, another cold front extends from 31N29W to 26N38W, then continues as a stationary front to 23N58W. Moderate winds are noted on either side of this front north of 29N, between 24W and 30W. Large NW swell of 8 to 10 ft covers the area north of 28N between 30W and 35W. For the remainder of the basin, moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas prevail from 20N southward. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will extend from near 25N55W to 22N65W and stationary to South Florida this evening, then gradually dissipate Sat from 23N55W to 23N65W. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas on both sides of the front will continue to impact the waters N of 27N and E of about 70W tonight, with the strong winds confined to east of 58W. Southerly winds offshore Florida will increase to strong late tonight and to gale force on Sat off northern Florida in advance of a stronger cold front that is expected to move across the waters off northeast Florida by late Sat. This front is forecast to reach from near 31N74W to South Florida early Sun, from near 31N57W to the central Bahamas early Mon and from near 23N55W to 23N70W early Tue. On Sat night through Mon, after the gales end, fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of this front N of 29N as it moves eastward. Looking ahead to Tue and Tue night, gale force southerly winds are expected to precede yet another strong cold front over the waters east of NE Florida, while strong to near gale force southerly winds are likely elsewhere N of 27N and W of 65W. By late Wed, this next front will be weakening as it extends from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas and to west-central Cuba. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected at that time N of 28N between the front and 60W, and along with rough seas E and NE of the Bahamas. $$ AReinhart