000 AXNT20 KNHC 050543 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Jan 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0535 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the Gulf of Mexico Fri into Sat. Strong to near gale force southerly winds and scattered to numerous thunderstorms will precede the cold front across the northern half of the Gulf, moving from west to east Fri through Fri night, with gale-force winds possible Fri night in the north-central to northeastern Gulf. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe, with gusty winds. Seas will build to 11 ft in the northern Gulf Fri night. Condition will quickly improve Sat. Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to move across the waters off northeast Florida by late Sat, preceded by strong to gale force southerly winds east of Florida on Sat. This front is forecast to reach from near 31N74W to South Florida early Sun, from near 31N59W to the central Bahamas early Mon and from near 24N55W to 24N68W early Tue. On Sat night through Sun night, fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of this front north of 29N. Seas are forecast to build to 13 ft late Sat. Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell prevails over portions of the SW N and central Atlantic waters N of 23N behind a cold front that extends from 31N35W to 22N70W. Seas are peaking near 14 ft. This area of large swell will propagate eastward through Friday, while subsiding slowly subsiding. The sea heights are forecast to be less than 12 feet on Friday afternoon. More large NW swell, that will be generated by the next storm system, will move into the waters that are to the N of 29N between 56W and 65W on Friday afternoon. This large swell will spread to the south and to the east through the weekend. The sea heights that will be with this swell will peak near 17 feet on Saturday night, roughly from 30N northward between 40W and 50W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N12W and continues to 07N17W. The ITCZ extends from 07N17W to 03N33W to 00N50W. Isolated to scattered showers are seen from 04N to 07N and east of 30W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on the Gale Warning in the northern Gulf. A stationary front is draped across the Florida Straits, becoming a dissipating stationary front near 23N88W and extending to near Tuxpan, Mexico. Latest satellite imagery depict a few weak showers near this boundary. Elsewhere, a dry airmass dominates resulting in no deep convection. The pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high pressure over the Ohio Valley and lower pressures in the southern US and northern Mexico sustain fresh to locally strong SE winds in the western Gulf of Mexico, especially north of 22N and west of 90W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. In the remainder of the Gulf, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will move northeastward as a warm front on Fri as low pressure forms along the Louisiana coast and moves eastward, dragging a cold front across the Gulf of Mexico. The cold front will extend from Panama City, FL to the central Bay of Campeche near 22N93W early Sat, then weaken Sat night as it reaches from Tampa Bay, FL to 22N93W. Strong to near gale force southerly winds and scattered to numerous thunderstorms will precede the cold front across the northern half of the Gulf of Mexico, moving from west to east Fri through Fri night, with gale- force winds possible Fri night in the north-central to northeastern Gulf. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong to severe, with gusty winds. Looking ahead, the next cold front is expected Mon night, preceded and followed by strong to near gale force winds and building seas. Winds may reach gale force speeds Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the islands dominates the Caribbean Sea, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. However, pockets of shallow moisture traverse the central and western Caribbean waters, producing isolated, light showers. The pressure gradient between the 1030 mb ridge in the Ohio Valley and lower pressures in northern Colombia result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Strongest winds and highest seas are found offshore Colombia. Recent scatterometer satellite pass show moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Seas are 2-5 ft in the area described. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America will support fresh to strong winds offshore Colombia through the forecast period. Southeast winds will increase to fresh to strong in the northwestern Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras Fri night into early Sat as a cold front passes north of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details about the Gale Warning off NE Florida and Significant Swell in the Atlantic. A cold front enters our waters near 31N69W and continues southwestward to the NW Bahamas, where it becomes a stationary front. No deep convection is noted near this boundary. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depict fresh to strong NW winds behind the front and fresh to locally near-gale southerly winds ahead of the front to 57W and north of 26N. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 31N67W. Farther east, another cold front extends from 31N35W to 25N46W, where it transitions into a stationary front and continues southwestward to 22N70W. Strong convection is noted ahead of the front to 31W, north of 27N. Fresh to strong winds are evident north of 27N and between 31W and 44W. Seas in the area described are 8-14 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 31N44W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by an expansive 1026 mb high pressure system near the Azores. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain fresh to strong easterly trade winds south of 18N and between 30W and 55W. Wave heights are in the 5-8 ft range in the area described. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, the aforementioned front east of Florida will extend from near 26N55W to 23N67W and stationary to South Florida Fri evening. Strong winds and rough seas will impact waters north of 27N on both sides of this front through Fri evening. A stronger cold front is expected to move across the waters off northeast Florida by late Sat, preceded by strong to gale force southerly winds east of Florida on Sat. This front is forecast to reach from near 31N74W to South Florida early Sun, from near 31N59W to the central Bahamas early Mon and from near 24N55W to 24N68W early Tue. On Sat night through Sun night, fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of this front north of 29N. Looking ahead to Tue and Tue night, gale force southerly winds are expected to precede yet another strong cold front over the waters east of NE Florida, while strong to near gale force southerly winds are likely elsewhere north of 27N and west of 65W. $$ Delgado