792 AXNT20 KNHC 042350 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Fri Jan 5 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Large Swell in the Atlantic Ocean... A cold front passes through 31N42W 26N50W 23N60W, to 22N72W near the SE Bahamas. A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 27N66W. Sea heights are 12 feet or higher in the Atlantic Ocean from 28N northward between 50W and 63W. The earlier gale- force winds now are to the north of the area. Large NW swell is being generated from the storm system that caused the earlier gale-force winds. The comparatively highest sea heights of 17 feet are from 30N to 31N between 50W and 52W. Rough seas also are elsewhere to the north of 31N45W 27N51W 24N63W. This area of large swell will propagate eastward through Friday, while subsiding slowly subsiding. The sea heights are forecast to be less than 12 feet on Friday afternoon. More large NW swell, that will be generated by the next storm system, will move into the waters that are to the N of 29N between 56W and 65W on Friday afternoon. This large swell will spread to the south and to the east through the weekend. The sea heights that will be with this swell will peak near 18 feet on Saturday night, roughly from 30N northward between 40W and 50W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through 06N10W, to 06N20W 04N30W 02N37W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N southward from 27W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Straits to 23N86W where it stalls and continues SW to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate NE to E winds and seas in the 5-6 ft range are behind the front over the eastern half of the Gulf of Mexico or E of 90W. Surface ridging has started to build along the northern gulf offshore waters and this is supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds W of 90W with seas to 5 ft. Scattered to isolated showers are likely along the northern basin. For the forecast, the cold front will shift southeast of the Gulf this evening. Low pressure, with an associated cold front is forecast to move across the basin Fri into Sat, bringing strong winds and the potential for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across most of the basin. Looking ahead, the next front is expected starting next week, preceded and followed by strong to near gale force winds and building seas. Winds may reach gale force speeds Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The associated pressure gradient between surface ridging extending to the northern Caribbean and lower pressure over Colombia, continue to support moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean, with locally strong winds just off the coast of Colombia. Seas over these regions are in the 3-6 ft range, being highest in the south-central basin. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America will support fresh to strong winds off Colombia through the forecast period. South winds will increase to fresh to strong in the northwestern Caribbean Fri night into early Sat as a cold front passes north of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details about large swell. A cold front stretches from near 31N73W to Palm Beach, Florida. Very rough seas are ongoing N of 28N and E of 60W. For the forecast W of 55W, the rough seas will shift east of the area this evening. The cold front will reach from just west of Bermuda to the NE Bahamas tonight, then move across the SE waters Fri. Strong winds and rough seas will impact the northern waters on both sides of this front. A stronger cold front is expected to move across the waters off northeast Florida Sat, possibly preceded by gale-force southerly winds. This front is forecast to reach from near 31N74W to South Florida early Sun, from near 31N59W to the central Bahamas early Mon and from near 31N43W to near 23N58W early Tue. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of this front early next week. On Tue and Tue night, gale-force southerly winds are expected to precede yet another strong cold front over the waters E of northeast Florida, while strong to near gale force southerly winds are likely elsewhere over most of the western forecast waters. $$ Ramos