077 AXNT20 KNHC 041802 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Thu Jan 04 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Large Swell in the Atlantic Ocean... A cold front passes through 31N42W 26N50W 23N60W, to 22N72W near the SE Bahamas. A 1019 mb high pressure center is near 27N66W. The latest altimeter setting data show that the sea heights are 12 feet or higher in the Atlantic Ocean from 28N northward between 50W and 63W. The earlier gale-force winds now are to the north of the area. Large NW swell is being generated from the storm system that caused the earlier gale-force winds. The comparatively highest sea heights of 17 feet are from 30N to 31N between 50W and 52W. Rough seas also are elsewhere to the north of 31N45W 27N51W 24N63W. This area of large swell will propagate eastward through Friday, while subsiding slowly subsiding. The sea heights are forecast to be less than 12 feet on Friday afternoon. More large NW swell, that will be generated by the next storm system, will move into the waters that are to the N of 29N between 56W and 65W on Friday afternoon. This large swell will spread to the south and to the east through the weekend. The sea heights that will be with this swell will peak near 18 feet on Saturday night, roughly from 30N northward between 40W and 50W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is inland in Africa. The ITCZ passes through 06N10W, to 06N20W 04N30W 02N37W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 07N southward from 27W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A NE-to-SW oriented cold front passes through 28N on the Florida east coast, to the south central Gulf waters, and to 22N91W. The front becomes stationary from 22N91W, to the coastal plains of Mexico near 19N96W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong cover the area. Fresh northerly winds are from the front northward from 92W eastward. Mostly moderate or slower winds are elsewhere. Moderate seas cover the NE quadrant, the central one-third from north to south, and the SW corner except for slight seas off the NW Yucatan Peninsula. Slight seas are in the remainder of the area. A cold front extending from Fort Myers, Florida to 23N90W and to the SW Gulf will shift southeast of the Gulf this evening. Low pressure, with an associated cold front is forecast to move across the basin Fri into Sat, bringing strong winds and the potential for thunderstorms across the NE Gulf. Looking ahead, the next front is expected starting next week, preceded and followed by strong to near gale force winds and building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh E to SE winds are within 240 nm of the coast of Venezuela between 63W and 70W. Broad moderate or slower surface wind spans the rest of the area. Moderate seas are within 180 nm of the coast of Colombia and the eastern half of Panama, and the central coastal sections of Venezuela. Slight seas are elsewhere. Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere throughout the area. A tight pressure gradient between high pressure centered N of the basin and lower pressure over South America will support fresh to strong winds off Colombia through the forecast period. South winds will increase to fresh to strong in the northwestern Caribbean Fri night into early Sat as a cold front passes north of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the large swell that is in the Atlantic Ocean. Moderate to rough seas are from 11N to 14N between 35W and 40W. Moderate seas are in the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Strong westerly winds are from 29N northward between the 31N42W 22N72W cold front and 54W. Fresh westerly winds are elsewhere from 27N northward between the cold front and 55W. Mostly fresh to some strong southerly winds are from 27N northward between 35W and the cold front. Fresh NE winds are from the line 24N21W 19N37W 17N51W 16N60W southward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 26N34W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is from 13N northward from 43W eastward. A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 31N76W beyond 28N at the eastern coast of Florida. Strong NW winds are from the cold front northward. Strong SW winds are from 27N northward from 70W westward, to the south of the cold front. Moderate seas are from the Bahamas northward from 70W westward. Very rough seas N of 28N and E of 60W will shift east of the area today. A cold front will move off the Florida coast today. This front will extend from just west of Bermuda to the NE Bahamas tonight, then move across the southeastern waters for the end of the week. Strong winds and rough seas will impact the northern waters on both sides of this front. A third and stronger cold front is expected to move into the waters off NE Florida Sat. Gale force southerly winds are possible off NE Florida ahead of the front on Sat. $$ MT/JA