000 AXNT20 KNHC 040604 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Jan 4 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 06N11W to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from 06N17W to 04N30W to 02N38W. No significant convection is ongoing at this time. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front extends from low pressure centered over the NE Gulf through the Florida Big Bend into northern Florida. A cold front extends from the low SW to near Veracruz, Mexico. No significant convection is associated with this boundary. A recent scatterometer pass noted moderate to fresh northerly winds behind the front where seas to 7 ft ft. Ahead of the front and N of 24N, winds are fresh from the SW, while seas are in the 5 to 6 ft range. For the forecast, the area of low pressure will track NE of the basin tonight, with associated cold front moving E across the basin through early Thu. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected with this low and cold front tonight. Another low pressure and cold front is forecast to move across the basin Fri into Sat, bringing strong winds and the potential for thunderstorms across the NE Gulf. Looking ahead, the next front will arrive at the start of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure anchored by a 1021 mb high north of the Greater Antilles and its associated ridge continues to support moderate to fresh trade winds across the eastern half of the basin, including NE fresh winds in the Windward Passage. Seas over the central and E Caribbean are in the 3 to 5 ft range, being the highest seas in the SW Caribbean over the offshore waters between Panama and Colombia. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere W of 80W along with seas to 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure centered N of the basin and lower pressure over South America will support fresh to strong winds off Colombia through the forecast period. S winds will increase to fresh to strong in the NW Caribbean Fri night into early Sat as a cold front passes north of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface high pressure has built over the SW N Atlantic waters in the wake of a cold front that is starting to move into the central subtropical Atlantic waters. The cold front extends from 31N50W SW to just north of Hispaniola near 20N70W. Fresh to near gale force winds remain behind the cold front north of 29N and east of 60W. Although winds have diminished, rough to very rough seas continue behind the cold front, with seas of 6 to 9 ft extending as far south as 22N and as far west as 75W. Seas of 9 to 12 ft are north of 25N and seas of 12 to 15 ft are north of 28N and east of 65W. Fresh to strong SW winds are noted ahead of the front to 42W and N of 25N. Surface ridging is over the remainder of the central and eastern subtropical waters allowing for light to gentle variable winds and seas between 4 to 6 ft in NW swell, except north of 28N between 23W and 30W, seas are 6 to 9 ft. In the tropics, trade winds are moderate to fresh with 5 to 7 ft seas. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move rapidly eastward, moving E of the area by Thu morning. A broad area of strong winds will prevail N of 28N and E of 62W tonight, with very rough seas N of 28N and E of 65W shifting E of the area Thu. Another cold front will move off the Florida coast late tonight. This front will extend from just west of Bermuda to the NE Bahamas Thu night, then move over the SE waters for the end of the week. Strong winds and rough seas will impact the northern waters on both sides of this front. A third and stronger cold front will move into the waters off NE Florida Sat. Gale force southerly winds are possible off NE Florida ahead of the front Sa $$ Mora