714 
AXNT20 KNHC 032351
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Thu Jan 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2350 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The associated pressure gradient between high pressure over the SW
N Atlantic waters and a cold front entering the central Atlantic
subtropical waters supported gale-force winds behind the front N
of 29N through this evening. However, fresh to strong W to NW
winds and seas between 12 and 17 ft continue to impact the
offshore waters behind the front to 64W and N of 28N. The front
will move E of the area late tonight/early Thu morning, but large
NW swell with seas to 15 ft will subside Thu late in the
afternoon. Please, refer to the High Seas Forecast, that is 
issued by the National Hurricane Center, at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml1, for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N11W to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends
from 06N17W to 04N30W to 02N38W. No significant convection is
ongoing at this time.  

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A warm front extends from low pressure centered over the NE Gulf
near 28N87W through the Florida Big Bend into northern Florida. A
cold front extends also from the low SW to the central gulf near
25N91W to Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered showers are ahead of the
cold front affecting portions of the eastern gulf. Moderate to
fresh northerly winds and seas to 7 ft follow the front, except
for locally strong winds off Veracruz. Ahead of the front and N of
24N, winds are fresh from the SW while seas are in the 5-6 ft
range. 

For the forecast, the low pressure will track NE, lifting the 
warm front over the NE Gulf while the cold front moves E across 
the basin through early Thu. Fresh to strong winds are expected 
with this low and cold front into tonight. Another low pressure 
and cold front is forecast to move across the basin Fri into Sat, 
bringing strong winds and the potential for thunderstorms across 
the NE Gulf. Looking ahead, the next front will arrive at the 
start of next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure anchored by a 1020 mb high NE of Freeport in the
Bahamas and its associated ridge continue to support moderate to
fresh trade winds across the eastern half of the basin, including
NE fresh winds in the Windward Passage. Seas over the central and
E Caribbean are in the 3 to 6 ft range, being the highest seas in
the SW Caribbean over the offshore waters between Panama and
Colombia. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere W of 80W along with
seas to 3 ft. 

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure
centered N of the basin and lower pressure over South America 
will support fresh to strong winds off Colombia through the 
forecast period. S winds will increase to fresh to strong in the 
NW Caribbean Fri night into early Sat as a cold front passes north
of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please, refer to the Special Features section, for details about 
a gale warning over the SW N Atlantic waters.

Surface high pressure has built over the SW N Atlantic waters in
the wake of a cold front that is starting to move into the central
subtropical Atlantic waters. The cold front extends from 31N53W SW
to the southern Bahamas offshore waters near 23N70W. Scattered
showers and tstms are ahead of the front N of 26N to 31W. Fresh to
near gale force winds and seas to 17 ft follows this front. See
more details in the Special Features section. Fresh to strong SW
winds are ahead of the front to 42W and N of 25N. Surface ridging
is over the remainder central and eastern subtropical waters
allowing for light to gentle variable winds and seas between 5 to
7 ft in NW swell. In the tropics, trade winds are moderate to 
fresh with 5-6 ft seas.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will move rapidly 
eastward, moving E of the area by Thu morning. Gale-force winds 
will lift north out of the are this evening. Another cold front 
will move off the Florida coast late tonight, extend from just 
west of Bermuda to the NE Bahamas Thu night, then move over the SE
waters for the end of the week. Strong winds and rough seas will 
again impact northern waters on both sides of this front. A third 
and stronger cold front will move into the waters off NE Florida 
Sat. Gale force southerly winds are possible off NE Florida ahead 
of the front Sat.

$$
Ramos