000
AXNT20 KNHC 030552
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Wed Jan 3 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A cold front curves southwestward from 31N63W to the Florida 
Straits. Scattered showers are occurring ahead of the front. 
Strong to gale force W to NW winds are behind the front north of 
28N with seas in the 8 to 14 ft range. These winds and high seas 
will shift eastward along with the cold front across the western 
Atlantic through Wed afternoon. As the front starts to weaken at 
the central Atlantic Wed night, both winds and seas should 
gradually subside. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas 
to 11 ft will also continue to progress eastward with the front. 
Please refer to the High Seas issued by the National Hurricane 
Center at  https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml1 more 
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W to 07N17W. 
The ITCZ runs from 07N17W to 04N30W to 05N35W. No significant 
convection is noted at this time. 

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from the Florida Straits to the central 
Gulf, where it meets a warm front extending from a 1013 mb low 
pressure center over the southern tip of Texas. A recent ASCAT 
pass found moderate to fresh southerly winds west of 90W, with 
locally strong winds noted offshore Texas near the low. Seas 
range from 4 to 6 ft in the NW Gulf north of 25N and west of 
90W, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. A line of convection recently 
emerged off the south Texas coast. 

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds will prevail north 
of the front. The area of low pressure will move off the coast 
of Texas tonight and track NE to E across the northern Gulf 
through Wed night. The associated warm front will shift north over
the central Gulf into Wed while the low drags a cold front across
the Gulf waters. Fresh to strong winds are expected with this low
and cold front. Another cold front is forecast to move into the 
basin Fri night into the weekend, bringing similar fresh to strong
winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Gentle to moderate trades and seas to 3 ft are ongoing over the 
eastern half of the basin. A surface ridge over the Gulf of 
Mexico extends into the NW Caribbean, supporting moderate to 
fresh NE winds and seas in the 5-6 ft range over the western 
half of the basin, including offshore the coast of Colombia. 
There is no deep convection ongoing basin-wide. 

For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure
centered N of the basin and lower pressure over South America
will support fresh to strong winds off Colombia into the weekend.
S winds will increase to fresh to strong in the NW Caribbean Fri 
night as a cold front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about a
Gale Warning.

Outside of the gale force winds behind the cold front, moderate 
to fresh NW winds were captured in a recent ASCAT pass. Moderate 
to fresh southerly winds were captured ahead of the front, north 
of 27N and west of 55W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in these areas. 

Elsewhere, surface ridging dominates the remainder of the 
central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters. Winds are light 
to gentle, and seas are in the 5-6 ft over this region. Over the 
tropical Atlantic, winds are moderate to locally fresh, with 
seas to 6 ft.

For the forecast W of 55W, another cold front will move off the 
Florida coast Wed night, extend from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas 
Thu night, then move over the SE waters for the end of the week. 
Strong winds and rough seas will again impact northern waters on 
both sides of this front. 

$$
Mora