158 AXNT20 KNHC 022350 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Jan 3 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front curves southwestward from northwest of Bermuda across 31N67W to the Florida Keys. Scattered showers are occurring ahead of the front to 52W and N of 25N. Strong to gale force W to NW winds are behind the front with seas in the 8 to 14 ft range. These winds and high seas will shift eastward along with the cold front across the western Atlantic through Wed afternoon. As the front starts to weaken at the central Atlantic Wed night, both winds and seas should gradually subside. Fresh to strong SW winds and seas to 11 ft will also continue to progress eastward with the front. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the southern Sierra Leone coast, then reaches westward to 07N17W. The ITCZ runs from 02N34W across 00N40W to near Sao Luis, Brazil. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 06N between 10W and 21W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Florida Keys to 25N85W where it stalls and continues NW to the southern tip of Texas. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds are N of the frontal boundary, being the highest winds off the coast of Texas. Moderate to fresh SE winds are also ongoing ahead of the front over the far western gulf. Seas basin-wide are in the 3-4 ft range, except over the Texas offshore waters where seas are between 4 and 5 ft. Scattered showers associated with the front are affecting mainly the central basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds will prevail north of the front. The front will retreat northward over the central Gulf as a warm front tonight into Wed as a new cold front enters the NW Gulf. Low pressure is likely to form along this front and track NE to E across the northern Gulf Wed night. Fresh to strong winds are likely to be associated with this low and cold front. Another cold front is likely to cross the basin Fri night into the weekend, bringing similar fresh to strong winds. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Gentle to moderate trades and seas to 3 ft are ongoing over the eastern half of the basin. A surface ridge over the Gulf of Mexico extends into the NW Caribbean supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and seas in the 5-6 ft range over the western half of the basin. There is no deep convection ongoing basin-wide. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure centered N of the basin and lower pressure over South America will lead to fresh to strong winds off Colombia into the weekend. S winds will increase to fresh to strong in the NW Caribbean Fri night as a cold front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about a Gale Warning. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will race E and extend from 28N55W to the Turks and Caicos by Wed morning. By Wed night, the front will be east of the area. A broad area of strong winds and very rough seas are expected both ahead of and behind the front N of 27N and E of 75W, with gales continuing tonight behind the front N of 29N. These gales will spread E to 55W through the day Wed. Another cold front will move off the Florida coast Wed night, extend from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Thu night, then move over the SE waters for the end of the week. Strong winds and rough seas will again impact northern waters on both sides of this front. $$ Ramos