169 AXNT20 KNHC 021757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Jan 2 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front curves southwestward from northwest of Bermuda across 31N72W to near Miami, Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 85 nm north of the front. Fresh to strong W to NW winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are evident behind the front. As the front pushes farther eastward to near 31N64W late this afternoon, winds behind the front north of 30N between 66W and 71W will reach near-gale to gale force. Seas under the strongest winds are going to peak between 12 and 18 ft. These winds and high seas will shift eastward along with the cold front across the western Atlantic through Wed afternoon. As the front starts to weaken at the central Atlantic Wed night, both winds and seas should gradually subside. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the southern Sierra Leone coast, then reaches westward to 07N17W. An ITCZ runs from 03N34W across 00N41W to near Sao Luis, Brazil. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen south the monsoon trough from 02N to 07N between the Liberia coast and 18W, and also near and up to 120 nm north of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends westward from near Naples, Florida to the central Gulf, then continues as a stationary front to near Brownsville, Texas. Scattered showers are seen near and up to 70 nm along either side of this boundary. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are present north of this boundary across the northern Gulf. Moderate SE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted at the southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle NE to SE winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will stall tonight from the Florida Keys to just northeast of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh NE winds will prevail north of this front. A stronger cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf on Wed. A low pressure may form along this front and track northeastward to eastward across the northern Gulf Wed night. Fresh to strong winds are likely to be associated with this low and cold front. Another cold front could cross the basin Fri night into the weekend, bringing similar conditions. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A few surface troughs embedded within the trade-wind flow are triggering scattered showers near the Windward Passage and Leeward Islands, and at the north-central basin. Convergent trades are generating similar conditions near the coast of Honduras and Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft dominate the south-central and northwestern basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the basin and lower pressure over South America will lead to fresh to strong winds off Colombia through the week. S winds will become fresh to strong in the northwestern basin Fri as a cold front approaches from the Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about a Gale Warning. Other than the cold front and its associated weather and seas mentioned in the Special Features section, another cold front runs southwestward from a 1017 mb low at 29.5N35W to near 27N40W, then continues as a stationary front to 24N46W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near the low, while patchy showers are seen up to 40 nm along either side of this boundary. Two surface troughs are causing scattered showers over the southeast Bahamas and near the Virgin Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are noted east of the first cold front north of 26N between 60W and 71W, and also east of the second cold front north of 26N between 34W and 37W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are evident near the southeast Bahamas, including waters surrounding the Turks and Caicos Islands. Otherwise, light to gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in moderate northerly swell exist north of 20N between the northwest Africa coast and 71W/Bahamas, including the Canary Islands. To the south, gentle to moderate NNE to ENE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are found from the Equator to 20N between 20W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle southerly and monsoonal winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft seas in mixed swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the first cold front will reach from Bermuda to southeast Bahamas tonight, stall near 22N/23N by Wed night then dissipate Thu. Strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of this front north of 27N through Wed night. Winds will reach gale force west of the front north of 30N tonight and Wed. A new cold front is forecast to move off the Florida coast Wed night into Thu, extend from Bermuda to the Bahamas Thu night, then stall near 20N/21N during the end of the week. Strong winds and rough seas will again impact waters north of 25N on both sides of this front. $$ Chan