000 AXNT20 KNHC 011755 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Jan 1 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front is forecast to move off the southeastern U.S. tonight and track across the western Atlantic through Thursday. Between Tuesday evening and Wednesday night, W to NW winds near and behind this front will reach near-gale to gale force north of 28N between 65W and 74W. Seas under the strongest winds should peak between 12 and 19 ft. As the front gradually weakens late Wednesday night through Thursday, both winds and seas will steadily decrease. Please refer to the High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the Sierra Leone-Liberia border, then reaches west-southwestward to 05N23W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 200 nm south, and 120 nm north of this feature. There is no ITCZ presence based on the latest analysis. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A warm front extends southwestward from near New Orleans to a 1021 mb low near 29N93W, then continues as a cold front to near Galveston, Texas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near this boundary. Otherwise, a surface ridge extending west-southwestward from a 1024 mb high over the east- central Gulf dominates the rest of the Gulf. Winds at gentle to moderate are southerly at the western Gulf, and westerly at the north-central and northeastern Gulf. Seas range from 2 to 4 ft in these areas. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are seen across the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the 1024 mb high pressure will weaken which allows the cold front to move farther into the northern Gulf later today. The front will reach from the Florida Panhandle to near the U.S.-Mexico border tonight, then stall from the Florida Big Bend to just south of the U.S.-Mexico border Tue night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow behind this front. A stronger cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf Wed. This front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche Wed night, then move southeast of the basin Thu. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front in the northern and western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Remnants of a stationary front, in the form of a few surface troughs are causing scattered showers from the Honduras-Nicaragua border northeastward across Jamaica to Hispaniola. Farther east, convergent trade winds are producing similar conditions at the Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are present at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas dominate the northwestern and north- central basin, including the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage. Moderate ENE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Basin. For the forecast, fresh with locally strong winds over the Windward Passage will diminish into tonight. High pressure building southward toward the basin supports fresh to strong winds off Colombia into Thu. S winds will increase in the northwestern basin at the end of the week ahead of a cold front in the Gulf of Mexico. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section at the beginning about upcoming gales. A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N50W to 27N58W, then continues as a stationary front to near the southeast Bahamas. Scattered showers are seen up to 60 nm along either side of this boundary. Farther east, a surface trough reaches southwestward from a 1015 mb low at 26N41W to 20N47W, and another surface trough is near 20N55W. These features are generating widely scattered showers north of 20N between 40W and 50W, and from 20N to 25N between 50W and 57W. Two more surface troughs, one is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms near Fortaleza, Brazil and another one with widely scattered showers from 02N to 04N between 29W and 36W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. Moderate to fresh W winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen off the northeast Florida coast to 70W. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to ENE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted near the cold/stationary front from 20N to 28N between 55W and the Bahamas. For the central and eastern Atlantic, light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in moderate northerly swell are evident north of 22N between the Africa coast and 50W, including the Canary Islands. To the south, gentle NNE to NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate northerly swell are found from 08N to 22N between the central Africa coast and 30W, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Farther west, gentle to moderate NE to ENE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas exist from 03N to 20N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle southerly winds with 3 to 5 ft seas in mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front will gradually dissipate by Tue. A cold front is forecast to move off the northeast Florida coast tonight and track eastward northeast of the Bahamas through Tue, then to near 60W by late Tue. Strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of this front north of 27N through Wed night before the front moves east of the 35W on Thu. Winds will reach gale force west of the front north of 30N Tue night and Wed. Another cold front is forecast to move off the Florida coast Thu, extending from Bermuda to the southeast Bahamas Thu night, then from near 29N55W to the Windward Passage Fri night. $$ Chan