000
AXNT20 KNHC 311628
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sun Dec 31 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1610 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 06N09W to 04N17W. The ITCZ 
continues from 04N17W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
from the equator north to 05N east of 22W. Scattered showers are 
along the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

1024 mb high pressure is centered near 25N88W, and 1025 mb high
pressure is centered over the Florida Peninsula. Light to gentle
winds prevail across the Gulf of Mexico with 2-4 ft seas.

For the forecast, high pressure will slide E tonight, allowing a 
cold front to move into the NW basin Mon. Moderate to fresh return
flow will develop over the far W Gulf today ahead of the cold 
front. The front will reach from northern Florida to near the 
coast of NE Mexico Mon night, then stall from central Florida to 
the NW Gulf Tue night. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will 
follow in behind this front. A stronger cold front is forecast to 
enter the NW Gulf Wed, extend from the Florida Panhandle to the 
Bay of Campeche Wed night, then move SE of the basin Thu. Fresh to
strong winds will follow the front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The front extending from central Hispaniola to northern Nicaragua
has stalled. Fresh to strong NE winds persist west of the front in
the NW Caribbean and Windward Passage, with seas of 6-9 ft. Within
the Windward Passage, recent satellite altimeter data indicates
localized seas to 10 ft. Moderate to locally fresh trades and 3-6
ft seas prevail east of the front in the central and eastern 
Caribbean.

For the forecast, the front will dissipate through Mon. Strong 
winds behind this boundary in the NW Caribbean as well as between 
Cuba and Jamaica will gradually diminish into tonight. High 
pressure building north of the front will support fresh to strong 
winds off Colombia tonight through Wed night. Moderate to fresh 
trades are likely Thu and Thu night for the central and eastern 
Caribbean waters. 

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N54W to central Hispaniola. Moderate
to fresh NE winds are from 20N to 23N between 70W and 75W, 
including approaches to the Windward Passage. Within the Windward 
Passage, NE winds are strong with 7-10 ft seas. Moderate to fresh
W winds and seas of 8-10 ft are north of 29N between 58W and 72W.
Weakening 1014 mb low pressure is located in the central Atlantic
near 24N41W. Light to gentle winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail across
the remainder of the Atlantic waters.

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will slide E through 
Tue, while gradually dissipating from S to N. Moderate to fresh W 
to NW winds and rough seas to 10 ft will prevail over the waters N
of 28N and E of 75W through late today. Another cold front is 
forecast to move off the NE Florida coast Mon night into Tue, then
through the western part of the area by late Tue. Strong winds 
and building seas are expected on either side of this front N of 
27N through Wed night when the front will move E of the area. A 
third cold front is forecast to move off the Florida coast Thu, 
extending from Bermuda to the central Bahamas Thu night. 

$$
Mahoney