000 AXNT20 KNHC 290548 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Dec 29 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning... A 1006 mb low pressure center is near 26N48W. An occluded front curves from the 1006 mb low pressure center to the 27N45W triple point. A warm front is along 27N45W 29N37W. A cold front is along 27N45W 24N45W 19N50W 18N55W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 15N northward between 36W and 50W. Gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 12 feet to 16 feet, are from 26N northward between 40W and 50W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere from 16N northward between 40W and 53W. Rough seas are from 22N northward between 40W and 60W. Strong NE-to-E winds are from 27N northward between 30W and 40W. Rough seas are from 22N northward between 30W and 40W. Near gale-force to gale- force winds are from 22N northward between 35W and 54W. Strong to near gale-force winds are forecast in this area later today on Friday morning. The gale-force winds will be slowing down by Friday morning. Please, refer to the High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through southern Ghana, the coastal plains of the Ivory Coast, to 04N09W. The ITCZ continues from 04N09 03N20W 02N30W 02N40W 03N51W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 60 nm on either side of the monsoon trough/ITCZ, and elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front passes through the NE corner of Florida, just to the south of the Tampa Florida metropolitan area, to just off the coast of the NW Yucatan Peninsula, to 19N96W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 26N southward. Strong NW winds are from 28N northward between 84W and 90W. Fresh NW winds are elsewhere from the cold front northward from 90W eastward. Fresh NE winds are from the cold front to 24N from 92W westward. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the area. Moderate seas are in the central one-third of the area. Slight seas cover the remainder of the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front extending from Central Florida to the SW Gulf will move southeast of the basin by early Fri. Winds and seas will diminish Sat as high pressure builds across the Gulf in the wake of the front. Another cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf early next week. The front will reach from west central Florida to near the coast of NE Mexico by late Mon, then stall from the SE Gulf to the central Gulf by late Tue. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow in behind this front. Another cold front may enter the NW Gulf late Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front passes through Cuba near 22N79W to 17N87W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 120 nm of Honduras from 81W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere to the northwest of the line that runs from the coast of Nicaragua along 13N beyond the Windward Passage. Fresh northerly winds are to the northwest of the line that runs from the coast of Honduras near 16N84W beyond 80W along the coast of Cuba. Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere throughout the area. Fresh NE winds are within 150 nm of the coasts of Venezuela and Colombia between 69W and 72W. Moderate or slower winds, and slight seas, are in the rest of the area. A cold front extending from central Cuba to near western Honduras will weaken as it reaches from near the Windward Passage to Honduras late Fri. A reinforcing cold front over the eastern Gulf of Mexico will enter the northwestern Caribbean early Fri. Fresh to strong northeast winds and moderate to rough seas will follow this front as it reaches from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras late Fri, from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras late Sat, then stall from south central Hispaniola to southeastern Nicaragua by late Sun and weaken. High pressure building north of the front will support fresh to strong winds pulsing off Colombia Sun night, Mon night and on Tue night along with building seas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the gale-force winds, and the 26N48W 1006 mb low pressure center and the frontal boundaries. A cold front passes through 31N68W beyond 22N79W in Cuba. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is to the northwest of the line that passes through 31N63W, to the Windward Passage. A surface trough is along 31N21W 26N27W. Rough seas are from 23N northward between 20W and 30W. Rainshowers are possible from 22N northward between 20W and 30W. Fresh NE winds are from 08N to 18N between 28W and 34W, and from the ITCZ to 09N between 36W and 45W. Moderate seas, and moderate or slower winds, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A slowly weakening cold front extends from 31N68W to central Cuba. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will follow a stronger cold front that will move off the NE Florida coast overnight. This front will overtake the weakening front as it reaches from near 31N70W to central Cuba by late Fri, from near Bermuda to the Windward Passage by late Sat, and from 28N55W to eastern Hispaniola by late Sun. The front will stall from near 27N55W to eastern Hispaniola Mon and dissipate through Tue. Looking ahead, another cold front may move off the NE Florida coast Mon night into Tue, and over the western part of the area by late Tue. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected on either side of this front NE of the Bahamas. $$ mt/al