294 AXNT20 KNHC 280956 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Dec 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are active over a large area north of a trough extending from 22N35W to 15N55W. This activity is associated with a broad upper trough moving slowly to the east across the region. The pattern will support development of 1008 mb low pressure along the trough near 26N45W later today. The gradient between the low and high pressure north of the area will support strong to near-gale force winds along the trough through late Fri, briefly reaching minimal gale force just north of the low pressure and trough this evening through the overnight hours. Maximum seas may reach as high as 16 ft tonight in the area of gales, with a component of NE to E swell. For more information, please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Liberia near 04.5N08W and continues to 03.5N15W. The ITCZ continues from 03.5N15W to 01S30W then on to 00N30W. No significant convection is evident along these features at this time. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Upper level jet dynamics are supporting the development of a weak low pressure area across the southeast Gulf this morning. Clusters of strong thunderstorms are active across and north of the Yucatan Channel moving into far western Cuba and the western Straits of Florida. Strong winds and locally rough seas are likely near this thunderstorms. Elsewhere, a cold front extending from near Grand Isle, Louisiana to Boca de Catan, Tamaulipas in northeast Mexico. Buoy observations show fresh NW winds follow the front over the far northwest Gulf, off the coast of Texas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are noted, outside of the activity in the far southeast Gulf. For the forecast, over the southeast Gulf, the fresh to strong winds, locally rough seas, and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will move across the remainder of the far southeastern Gulf this morning into the early afternoon, associated the weak disturbance moving from the southeast Gulf across South Florida toward the northern Bahamas. The cold front moving through the northwest Gulf will move southeast of the basin by late this evening followed by fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas. Winds and seas will diminish Sat as high pressure builds across the Gulf in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, fresh southerly winds will return to the western Gulf Sun and Sun night as the high pressures shifts eastward. Another cold front is expected to move across the northern and western Gulf Mon, and reach from southwest Florida to the south-central Gulf and SW Gulf by late Mon. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow in behind this front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds, locally rough seas and scattered showers and thunderstorms are active across the Yucatan Channel this morning, associated with a weak disturbance over the southeast Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas are evident elsewhere across the Caribbean, except for possible fresh winds pulsing off the coast of Colombia currently. Outside of the showers and thunderstorms in the Yucatan Channel, no significant convection is noted at this time. For the forecast, a cold front will move across the Yucatan Channel tonight into Fri morning. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front as it reaches from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras late Fri, from the Windward Passage to eastern Honduras late Sat, then stall from south- central Hispaniola to southeast Nicaragua by late Sun. High pressure building north of the front will support fresh to strong winds pulsing off Colombia Sun night and Mon night with building seas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details about the gale warning for the Central Atlantic. A weak frontal boundary extends from 31N71W to the central Bahamas. Fresh S winds and 6 to 7 ft seas are noted north of 29N between 65W and 70W ahead of this boundary, with moderate to fresh NW winds and 4 to 6 ft seas noted north of 29N west of the boundary. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere west of 60W. Recent scatterometer and altimeter satellite data showed fresh to strong winds and 8 to 11 ft combined seas over a broad area north of a trough reaching from 1014 mb low pressure near the Azores to just northeast of Barbados. A 1010 mb low pressure area was analyzed north of the trough near 21N55W. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms are active over a large area north of the trough east of 50W. Gentle to moderate winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas in northerly swell are noted elsewhere south of this trough. For the forecast west of 55W, regarding the weak frontal boundary extending from 31N71W to the central Bahamas, the portion of the front north of 28N will drift east toward Bermuda through today. The southern portion will stall and weaken further, before being overtaken by a weak disturbance moving from the southeast Gulf toward the northern and central Bahamas by this evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will follow a stronger front that will move off the northeast Florida coast overnight and overtake the disturbance in the northern Bahamas. This stronger front will reach from 31N70W to central Cuba by late Fri, from near Bermuda to the Windward Passage by late Sat, and from 31N55W to north- central Hispaniola by late Sun. The southern portion of the front south of 25N will stall into Mon, while the northern portion will continue to move east of the area. Looking ahead, another cold front may move off the northeast Florida coast Mon night into Tue. $$ Christensen