570 AXNT20 KNHC 280614 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Thu Dec 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning... A surface trough is along 31N25W 26N30W 20N40W 17N50W 14N60W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated/widely scattered strong is to the north of the surface trough between 31N and 52W. Rough seas are on the northern side of the surface trough between 30W and 50W, and from 28N northward between 20W and 30W. Strong NE winds are: from 28N northward between 25W and 35W, from 24N northward between 35W and 45W. Strong NE-to-E winds are from 26N northward between 45W and 57W. Fresh winds are elsewhere to the north of the line that passes through 31N25W 26N30W 23N35W 23N42W 22N52W 26N62W beyond 31N70W. The 24-hour forecast consists of a surface trough along 28N35W 26N45W 25N60W 28N58W. A 1008 mb low pressure center is forecast to be along the surface trough close to 26N45W. Expect E gale-force winds, and sea heights that range from 12 feet to 15 feet, from 28N to 30N between 39W and 45W. Expect strong to near gale- force winds, and rough seas, elsewhere from 22N to 31N between 35W and 57W. Please, refer to the High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the SE corner of Ghana, to 03N16W. The ITCZ continues from 03N16W, to 02N24W, to the Equator along 27W, continuing along the Equator to 40W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 12N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is digging into the western sections of the Gulf of Mexico. A frontal boundary has moved through Texas, and now to the Texas coastal plains/coastal waters. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are to the east of the line that runs from SE Louisiana to the coast of Mexico near 20N96W. Fresh winds are in the precipitation areas that are in the south central Gulf. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the area. Slight seas cover the Gulf of Mexico. High pressure across the north-central Gulf will shift eastward ahead of a dry cold front moving off the Texas coast. The front will move southeast of the basin Thu night, followed by fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas. Winds and seas will diminish Sat as high pressure builds across the Gulf in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, fresh southerly winds will return to the western Gulf Sun and Sun night as the high pressures shifts eastward. Another cold front is expected to move across the northern and western Gulf Mon, and reach from southwest Florida to the south central Gulf and SW Gulf by late Mon. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow in behind this front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough passes through SE Cuba, through the NW Caribbean Sea, to Belize. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N northward from 80W westward. the Windward Passage westward. Precipitation: broken to overcast low level and middle level clouds, and isolated moderate, are elsewhere throughout the area. Fresh to strong NE winds are within 60 nm of the coast of Colombia between 74W and 75W. Mostly moderate to some fresh NE winds are in the rest of the central one-third of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate or slower winds are in the rest of the area. Moderate seas are within 180 nm of the coasts of Colombia and Panama between 70W and 80W. Slight seas are elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin into Thu. A cold front will move across the Yucatan Channel Thu night into Fri morning, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras late Fri, then stalling from roughly the Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua late Sat and Sun. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front over the western Caribbean Fri night through Sun, along with fresh to strong northeast winds in the Windward Passage Sat night and Sun. By late Mon, mostly moderate to fresh winds will be over the western Caribbean and fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the 24-hour forecast for gale-force winds. A cold front extends from a 31N72W triple point, to 27N72W, to 23N75W in the Bahamas. A surface trough continues from 23N75W, to 1011 mb low pressure center, through SE Cuba, to Belize. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 20N northward from 62W westward. Moderate seas are from 65W westward. Fresh westerly winds are from 29N northward from 75W westward. Moderate or slower winds are elsewhere from 65W westward. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is along 30N63W 25N60W, to a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 22N56W. Fresh E-to-SE winds are from 27N northward between 60W and 70W. Rough seas are from 23N northward between 50W and 60W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate is from 18N northward between 52W and 67W. Moderate seas, and moderate or slower winds, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A cold front extends from 31N72W to the central Bahamas and to 22N76W. The front will weaken as it lifts to the northeast through Bermuda, ahead of a second and stronger cold front that is expected to move off the northeast Florida coast late Thu night. That next front will reach from near 31N70W to eastern Cuba Fri night, and from near Bermuda to the Windward Passage by Sat night. The northern part of the front will continue to move east through Mon, but will stall from 25N55W to the Windward Passage. $$ mt/ec