000 AXNT20 KNHC 272319 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Thu Dec 28 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: An upper disturbance moving into the central Atlantic will induce development of a surface low by Thu afternoon near 26N44W along a trough in the central Atlantic. The gradient between the low pressure and strong high pressure over the N Atlantic will support an area of near-gale to gale force E winds Thu and Thu evening from generally 27N-30N between 38W-45W. Seas will reach as high as 16 ft. For more information, please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 03N10W. The ITCZ continues from 03N10W to 02N46W. Isolated moderate convection extends from 05N-08N between 45W-50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure extending over the central Gulf is supporting gentle to moderate winds and seas of 1-2 ft over the E Gulf and 2-5 ft over the W Gulf. Scattered showers are observed across the NE Gulf, mainly east of 88W and north of 25N. For the forecast, high pressure across the north-central Gulf will shift eastward ahead of a dry cold front that will move off the Texas coast early this evening. The front will move southeast of the basin on Thu night, followed by fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas. Winds and seas will diminish Sat as high pressure builds across the Gulf in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, fresh southerly winds will return to the western Gulf Sun and Sun night as the high pressures shifts eastward. Another cold front is expected to move across the northern and western Gulf Mon, and reach from southwest Florida to the south-central Gulf and SW Gulf by late Mon. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will follow in behind this front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front moving through the Bahamas north of the area is breaking up the subtropical ridge that is normally in place there, diminishing the trades across the Caribbean this afternoon. Winds are gentle to moderate and there is no significant convection noted anywhere across the Caribbean at this time. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin into Thu. A cold front will move across the Yucatan Channel Thu night into Fri morning, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras late Fri, the Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua late Sat, and the Dominican Republic to southern Nicaragua by late sun. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front over the western Caribbean Fri night through Sun, along with fresh to strong northeast winds in the Windward Passage Sat night and Sun. By late Mon, mostly moderate to fresh winds will be over the western Caribbean and fresh to strong winds near the coast of Colombia. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details about the upcoming Atlantic gale warning. A cold front extends from 31N75W to 26N74W and southwestward to the central Bahamas and to 22N76W. Fresh to strong SE winds are ahead of the front north of 27N with seas 6-8 ft. Over the central Atlantic, an extended trough from 31N25W to 19N50W is associated with a large area of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 19N-28N between 35W-53W. This is supported by a sharp upper- level trough along 48W. Winds north of the trough are NE to E fresh to strong with 8-12 ft seas. Winds and seas are higher near thunderstorms. Elsewhere, the winds are gentle to moderate with seas 5-8 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will weaken as it lifts to the northeast through Bermuda, ahead of a second and stronger cold front that is expected to move off the northeast Florida coast late Thu night. That next front will reach from near Bermuda to the Windward Passage Fri night, from near 31N60W to Haiti by late Sat, from near 31N55W to the central Dominican Republic by late Sun, then stall and weaken by late Mon from near 29N55W to the northeast part of the Dominican Republic. $$ Landsea/Nepaul