000 AXNT20 KNHC 271623 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Dec 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1615 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: An upper disturbance moving into the central Atlantic over the next couple of days will induce development of a 1008 mb surface low by Thu afternoon near 25N45W along a trough in the central Atlantic. The gradient between the low pressure and strong high pressure over the northwest Atlantic will support an area of near-gale to gale force winds into Thu evening from generally 27N to 29N between 38W and 42W. Associate combined seas will reach as high as 16 ft, accompanied by a component of NE swell. For more information, please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Ghana near 05N02E to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues from 02N15W to 06N51W. Scattered moderate convection extends southward of 08N between 23W and 42W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure extending over the central Gulf is supporting light to gentle breezes and slight seas across the basin. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are observed across the northwest Gulf, mainly west of 88W and north of 22N. For the forecast, the high pressure will shift eastward ahead of a dry cold front that will move off the Texas coast this afternoon. The front will move southeast of the basin Thu night through early Fri, followed by fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas. Winds and seas will diminish Sat as high pressure builds across the Gulf in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, fresh southerly winds will return to the western Gulf Sun and Sun night as the high pressures shifts eastward. Another cold front is expected to move across the northern and western Gulf Mon and reach from southwest Florida to the south-central Gulf and SW Gulf by late Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough reaches from central Cuba to near Roatan off the coast of mainland Honduras. There may be a small area of fresh to strong NE to E winds pulsing off the coast of Colombia, but elsewhere across the Caribbean mostly moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. The relatively light wind flow is due to a front moving through the Bahamas north of the area, breaking up the subtropical ridge that is normally in place there supporting slight stronger trade winds across the Caribbean. There is no significant convection noted anywhere across the Caribbean at this time. For the forecast, the gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist across the basin into Thu. A cold front will move across the Yucatan Channel Thu night into Fri morning, reach from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras late Fri, the Windward Passage to northeast Nicaragua late Sat, and the Dominican Republic to southern Nicaragua by late sun. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front over the western Caribbean Fri night through Sun, along with fresh to strong northeast winds in the Windward Passage Sat night and Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details about the upcoming Atlantic gale warning. A cold front extends from a 1008 mb low centered just offshore South Carolina to 31N77W, then south-southwestward to the central Bahamas and to just north of east-central Cuba. A recent scatterometer pass reveals fresh W winds behind the front backing to SE ahead of the front, along with seas of 8 to 10 ft east of the front to 70W, north of 28N. Farther east, a broad mid to upper trough moving into the central Atlantic is supporting a surface trough from 30N61W to 21N57W, and a large area of showers and thunderstorms east of the trough to 47W, north of 20N. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft combined seas are noted elsewhere north of 20N and west of 60W. East of that, another surface trough reaches from a 1012 mb low pressure from 32N27W to 15N53W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 160 nm east of this trough, north of 20N. A large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds and 8 to 12 ft seas persist west of this trough to 60W, north of 25N. Fresh to strong SW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are active within 120 nm east of this trough, north of 27N. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted across the remainder of the basin, south of 20N. For the forecast west of 55W, the abovementioned front in the western Atlantic will weaken as it lifts to the northeast through Bermuda, ahead of a second and stronger cold front that is expected to move off the northeast Florida coast late Thu night. That next front will reach from near Bermuda to the Windward Passage Fri night, from near 31N60W to Haiti by late Sat, and from near 29N58W to the central Dominican Republic by late Sun. $$ Nepaul