803 AXNT20 KNHC 262256 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Wed Dec 27 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A surface trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure system positioned near 32N32W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed north of 22N and east of the surface trough to 21W. A tight gradient between the trough and a 1027 mb high pressure system in the north Atlantic supports fresh to strong NE winds north of 25N and between 25W and 60W. Seas of 12-14 ft are found north of 26N and between 32W and 45W. Sea of 8-12 ft are occurring north of 22N and between 27W and 62W. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and large seas will persist north of 22N and east of 55W through Wed as the trough continues to drift south and east. Looking ahead, an upper level disturbance moving into the region will support the development of a surface low along the trough by late Thu near 23N43W. Winds may reach gale force again by late Fri north of the low pressure as the low deepens. For more information, please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N08W to 03N10W. The ITCZ continues from 03N02W to 02N25W to 04N40W. A surface trough is analyzed along 43W, from 01N to 08N. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 08N and between 27W and 47W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from SW Florida to western Cuba. No deep convection is seen near this boundary. Mid to upper level moisture is streaming across the western and central Gulf of Mexico, supporting a few showers. A weak high pressure over the Mississippi Valley supports moderate or weaker winds and seas of 2-4 ft across the basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will drift to the southeast of the Gulf through Wed. High pressure will build in the wake of the front today and tonight, then shift east ahead of the next front that is expected to move off the Texas coast Wed. The next front will reach from near Apalachicola, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by early Thu afternoon, with fresh to locally strong winds possible off Veracruz by then. A reinforcing shot of cold air will allow fresh to locally strong NW winds and rough seas over the central and eastern Gulf Thu night and Fri as the front shifts to the southeast of the area. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin Sat and Sat night as 1023 mb high pressure moves over the Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Dry air across the Caribbean Sea is suppressing the development of deep convection. Strong high pressure north of the islands sustains moderate to fresh easterly trade winds in the central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. The strongest winds and highest seas are found offshore NW Colombia. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse within 60 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere through Thu. A stationary front over the Yucatan Channel will enter the NW Caribbean Thu morning and weaken later that day. A reinforcing cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Fri morning, and reach from the eastern tip of Cuba to the Honduras/Nicaragua border by Sat afternoon. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind the front over the NW Caribbean Fri night through Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about the Atlantic Significant Swell Event. A cold front extends from a 1011 mb low pres near 30N80W to central Florida. A few showers are seen east of the low pres. The pressure gradient between the low pres and a 1027 mb high pres centered in the north Atlantic support fresh to strong southerly winds north of 26N and west of 76W. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft. Outside of the system described in the Special Features section, broad ridging dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SE winds will persist off northeast Florida through tonight ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight, reach from near 31N74W to Miami, Florida Wed night, and from near 31N67W to central Cuba Thu night. This front will quickly be overtaken by a stronger reinforcing front that emerges off the coast of northeast Florida Thu night. The combined front will extend from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba early Sat morning, and from 31N60W to the N coast of Haiti by Sat night. Reinforcing cold air behind the front will support fresh to strong W to NW winds and rough seas north 27N Fri through Sat night. $$ Delgado