014 AXNT20 KNHC 261652 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Tue Dec 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure near 32N33W. A tight gradient between the trough and a 1029 mb high pressure northeast of Bermuda is supporting fresh to strong NE winds west of the trough to 50W, north of 25N. Winds just behind the trough, north of 28N, have diminished below gale- force as of 1500 UTC. Seas in this area remain 10 to 13 ft. While winds have diminished to below gale-force, combined seas will continue to build as large NE swell moves into the area. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and large seas will persist north of 22N and east of 55W through Wed as the trough continues to drift south and east. Looking ahead, an upper level disturbance moving into the region will support the development of a surface low along the trough by late Thu near 23N43W. Winds may reach gale force again by late Fri north of the low pressure as the low deepens. For more information, please refer to the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N08W to 02N12W. The ITCZ continues from 02N12W to 03N25W to 06N41W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the ITCZ south of 08N between 17W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from near Fort Myers, Florida, to the western tip of Cuba. Gentle to moderate northerly winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail across the basin. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will drift to the southeast of the Gulf through Wed. High pressure will build in the wake of the front today and tonight, then shift east ahead of the next front that is expected to move off the Texas coast Wed night. The next front will reach from near Panama City, Florida to Veracruz, Mexico by early Thu afternoon, with fresh to strong winds possible off Veracruz by then. A reinforcing shot of cold air will allow fresh to locally strong NW winds and rough seas over the central and eastern Gulf Thu night and Fri as the front shifts to the southeast of the area. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin Sat and Sat night as 1023 mb high pressure moves over the Gulf of Mexico, in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak 1012 mb low pressure is analyzed within 50 nm miles north of central Honduras near 16.5N86W with an attendant trough extending from 19N84W to central Honduras. A small area of fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are pulsing off Colombia between Barranquilla and Cartagena to 12N. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted, except for light breezes and slight seas over the northwest Caribbean. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is evident. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse within 60 nm of the coast of Colombia tonight. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere through Thu. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel late Wed night and weaken Thu over the NW Caribbean. A reinforcing cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night, and reach from the eastern tip of Cuba to the Honduras/Nicaragua border by Sat afternoon. Fresh winds are expected behind the front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details about the Atlantic Ocean gale warning. Fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to rough seas are ongoing off northeast Florida and north of the northern Bahamas, between a 1013 mb low pressure over Georgia and high pressure farther to the northeast. South of this ridge, beyond the area described in the Special Features section, is a large area of moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 8 to 10 ft seas mainly north of 22N west of the trough to 60W. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere north of 20N and west of the trough. East of the trough, a recent scatterometer pass reveals near-gale force SW winds are present within 40 nm, north of 28N and fresh to strong S to SW winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are evident within 300 nm, north of 23N. For the remainder of the north Atlantic south of 31N, gentle to moderate winds and seas persist, except for a small area of fresh winds over the deep tropics from 08N to 05N between 26W and 30W. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SE winds will persist off northeast Florida through this evening ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast tonight, reach from near 31N74W to South Florida Wed night, and from near 31N67W to central Cuba Thu night. This front will quickly be overtaken by a stronger reinforcing front that emerges off the coast of northeast Florida Thu evening. Looking ahead, the combined front will extend from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba early Sat morning, and from 31N60W to the N coast of Haiti by Sat night. Reinforcing cold air behind the front will support fresh to strong W to NW winds and rough seas north 27N Fri through Sat. $$ Nepaul