761 AXNT20 KNHC 260539 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Tue Dec 26 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0520 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Central Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning... A first surface trough extends from a 1008 mb 31N37W low pressure center, to 27N40W 20N50W 18N54W. A second surface trough is about 240 nm to the northwest of the first surface trough from 25N northward. Expect imminent gale-force N to NE winds, and sea heights that will range from 12 feet to 14 feet in NW to N swell, from 29N to 31N between 37W and 40W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 100 nm to 300 nm to the east and to the southeast of the first surface trough. The 24-hour forecast consists of wind speeds less than gale-force, and sea heights to range from 8 feet to 11 feet in N to NE swell, from 20N to 31N between 35W and 61W. Please, read the High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of southern Liberia to 03N12W. The ITCZ continues from 03N12W, to 03N16W 03N21W 04N30W 05N38W. A surface trough is along 42W/44W, from 06N southward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 08N southward from 45W eastward. Broken to overcast high level clouds are from 17N southward between 43W and 60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1011 mb low pressure center is in the Florida Panhandle. A warm front curves away from the 1011 mb low pressure center, to the eastern part of central Florida. A stationary front continues from the 1011 mb low pressure center, to the south central Gulf, and to the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. A cold front is about 180 nm to the west and to the northwest of the stationary front. High level clouds are curving through the Gulf of Mexico in an anticyclonic sense. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and possible rain, cover mostly the western half of the area. Similar clouds and precipitation are scattered to broken in coverage. Moderate seas cover the area from the central sections northward and toward the northeast. Slight seas cover the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. Moderate or slower winds are in the area. A 1011 mb low pres is centered over the western Florida Panhandle with a warm front extending SE from the low to over north Florida, and a stationary front extending SW from the low to the Bay of Campeche. A secondary cold front has entered the NW Gulf, extending from SE Louisiana to NE Mexico. Moderate N winds prevail behind the second front. The cold fronts will combine by Tue morning and extend from northern Florida to Tuxpan, Mexico, then weaken and slowly move southeast of the Gulf late Wed. High pressure will build in the wake of the front Tue, then shift east ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving into the northwest Gulf late Wed. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow the front over the northern Gulf as it moves east of the area through early Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is along the line from the northern sections of Nicaragua, through eastern Honduras, to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from Jamaica northward from Jamaica westward. Fresh to moderate NE-to-E winds are in the central one-third of the area. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Caribbean Sea. Moderate seas are in the southern half of the central one-third of the area. Slight seas are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended at 26/0000 UTC, are: 0.43 in Curacao, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN. Fresh to locally strong winds will pulse at night near the coast of Colombia through Tue night. Moderate or weaker winds will prevail elsewhere through Thu. A cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Wed night and weaken Thu over the NW Caribbean. A reinforcing cold front will reach the Yucatan Channel Thu night, stalling from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras by the end of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the imminent Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning. A surface ridge runs from Bermuda toward Puerto Rico. A second surface ridge is along 15N30W 27N25W beyond 31N20W. Rough seas are to the north of the line that passes through 31N35W 24N49W 23N56W 27N66W beyond 31N70W. Mostly moderate to some rough seas are from the Bahamas northward from 70W westward. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong, are from 70W westward. Slight seas are to the east of the line that passes through 31N26W 26N22W 21N20W 15N19W, to the Equator along 15W/16W. Moderate seas are elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean. Strong to near gale-force SE winds are from 27N northward from 77W westward. Strong NE winds are from 28N northward between the second Atlantic Ocean surface trough, from the SPECIAL FEATURES section and 52W. Fresh southerly winds are from 23N northward between 30W and 40W. Fresh to strong NE winds are from 29N northward between 60W and 63W. Moderate and fresh winds cover much of the rest of the Atlantic Ocean. Fresh to strong SE winds will persist off northeast Florida through late Tue ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by early Wed, and reach reach from near 31N75W to South Florida Wed night, from near 31N70W to central Cuba Thu night. This front will quickly be overtaken by a stronger reinforcing front that emerges off the coast of NE Florida Thu evening. The combined front will extend from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba late Fri night. W to NW winds will increase off northeast Florida Thu night into Fri as the reinforcing front moves off the coast. Large NE to E swell will persist across the region mainly north of 22N and east of 65W through mid week. $$/ mt/ec