000 AXNT20 KNHC 250954 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Dec 25 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Tight gradient between a 1007 mb low pressure over southeastern Louisiana and a 1030 mb high pressure off the northeast U.S. is sustaining near-gale SE winds with frequent gusts to gale force across the coastal waters from the Florida Panhandle to off Mobile Bay. Seas in these area range from 11 to 13 ft. As the low and its related warm front lift farther northward later this morning, these winds will decrease. Please visit the National Weather Service website at www.weather.gov for more details. Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front extends southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic to 31N41W to 23N55W. A low pressure is expected to form along this front near 29N44W today. As this low deepens while moves east- northeastward, NE winds northwest and north of this low will reach near-gale to gale force early Tuesday morning. Combined seas under the strongest winds will build and peak at 12 to 17 ft north 27N between 40W and 50W. As the low tracks east- northeastward through Tuesday afternoon, these gales and rough seas will also shift eastward. Conditions should begin to improve Tuesday evening as the low gradually weakens. Please read the High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The African monsoon trough remains over the continent. The ITCZ extends westward from southwest of Liberia at 02N11W across 04N30W to 05N46W. Scattered moderate convection is evident up to 90 nm along either side of the ITCZ between 40W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above on an ongoing gale warning. A warm front extends southeastward from a 1007 mb low over southern Louisiana to the east-central Gulf. A cold front also curves southwestward from this same low to north of Tampico, Mexico. Scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms with gusty winds are occurring near over the loop current in the south-central and southeast Gulf. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong SE to S winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are present across the northeastern and east- central Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to SW winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are found at the southeastern and central Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate SW to NW winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the warm front will move north of the area this morning. The cold front will reach from northern Florida to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, and then move southeast of the Gulf early Wed. High pressure will build in the wake of the front Tue, then shift east ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving into the northwest Gulf late Wed. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow the front over the northern Gulf as it moves east of the area through Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad ridging over the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds across the Caribbean with 4 to 6 ft seas, except for strong winds pulsing off Colombia where seas are reaching 8 ft. No significant showers or thunderstorms are active across the basin at this time. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse at night off Colombia through Tue night. Moderate to locally fresh winds in the western Caribbean will diminish early this week. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail over the eastern Caribbean. A cold front may reach the Yucatan Channel by late Wed, stalling from Cuba to Honduras by the end of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details about the upcoming Atlantic gale warning. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are active along a stationary front extends southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic across 31N41W to 23N55W. A surface trough stretches northward from 31N67W to 24N67W. Fresh to strong SE winds are noted north of the northern Bahamas and off northeast Florida, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Ship observations indicate fresh to strong NE winds and 8 to 10 ft seas in NE swell mainly north of 27N between 55W and 65W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are noted elsewhere north of 20N west of 55W. Moderate winds and seas are noted elsewhere south of broad ridging over the eastern Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SE winds will persist off northeast Florida through late Tue ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by early Wed, and reach reach from near 31N75W to South Florida Wed night, from near 31N70W to central Cuba Thu night, and from near Bermuda to eastern Cuba Fri night. Large NE to E swell will also persist across the region mainly north of 24N and east of 65W through mid week. W to NW winds will increase off northeast Florida Thu night into Fri as a second, reinforcing front moves of the coast. $$ Christensen