000
AXNT20 KNHC 232306
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Dec 24 2023

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2230 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The African monsoon trough extends from the coast of Ghana near 
05N03W to 03N07W. The ITCZ continues from 03N07W to 04N50W. 
Scattered moderate convection is evident along the ITCZ south of 
04N between 14W and 45W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail over 
the north-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate E winds and 3 to 5 ft 
seas are noted elsewhere east of 90W. Gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft
seas are evident west of 90W. No significant deep convection is 
noted at this time. 

For the forecast, moderate winds and seas across the north-central
and northeastern Gulf will increase tonight between high pressure
over the Carolinas and a complex low and cold front moving from 
the southern Rockies into the southern Plains. A warm front will 
develop ahead of the low and move northward across the northwest 
Gulf tonight into Sun. Winds may reach near-gale Sun night over 
the northeast Gulf, with seas building to 12 ft. The cold front 
will move off the Texas coast into the northwest Gulf Sun night, 
reaching from Louisiana to Tampico, Mexico early Mon, from 
northern Florida to Veracruz, Mexico early Tue, and then move 
southeast of the Gulf early Wed. High pressure will build in the 
wake of the front. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong NE 
winds over the central Caribbean. Seas are generally 5 to 8 ft 
and up to 9 ft off the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE to 
E winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the basin. 

For the forecast, Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night off
Colombia through Mon night. Moderate to fresh winds in the 
western Caribbean will diminish early next week. Gentle to 
moderate winds will prevail over the eastern Caribbean. A cold 
front may reach the Yucatan Channel the middle of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N45W to 24N50W, where it transitions 
to a stationary front and continues to a 1014 mb low near 20N63W
to 19N65W. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 30N44W to 
23N49W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted within 90 
nm along either side of the frontal boundary north of 20N. 
However, the strongest convection associated with this feature is 
noted east of the trough north of 24N between 40W-45W. West of 
the front, seas are 8 to 10 ft, mainly due to N to NE swell 
lingering over the area. A recent scatterometer pass reveals 
moderate to fresh NE winds behind the front to 80W. Broad ridging 
is evident elsewhere ahead of the front with generally moderate NE
to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in NE to E swell.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate tonight. 
Fresh to occasionally strong NE to E winds and large N to NE swell
will persist mainly north of 22N through early Sun, and north of 
24N into the middle of next week as high pressure builds over the 
Carolinas and mid- Atlantic states, and broad low pressure 
develops east of the area. A cold front will move off the 
northeast Florida coast the middle of next week and reach from 
near 31N75W to South Florida Wed night, and from near 31N70W to 
Central Cuba Thu night.

$$
ERA