574 AXNT20 KNHC 230601 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Sat Dec 23 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The Africa monsoon trough remains mostly over the continent. An ITCZ extends west-northwestward from 01N10W across 02N30W to 06N49W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate convection is noted up to 90 nm along either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Two surface troughs are producing widely scattered showers at the north-central and west-central Gulf. Westerlies associated with the sub-tropical jet are streaming thick cirrus clouds across the Gulf between 23N and 27N. At the surface, a broad surface ridge runs southwestward from the Florida Panhandle to the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present at the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to ESE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area is producing moderate or weaker winds over the Gulf this afternoon with the exception of some fresh NE winds over the Florida Straits. For Sat and Sun, an approaching cold front will enhance the SE return flow, becoming fresh to strong over the north-central and northeastern Gulf. A warm front should develop near the Texas- Louisiana coastline along the northern edge of the strong SE winds Sat night into Sun night, enhancing the likelihood of showers and thunderstorms in the northern Gulf. The cold front should emerge from the Texas coast Sun night, quickly move southeastward, reaching from the Florida Big Bend coast to near Veracruz, Mexico by Tue morning, and extending from Ft Myers, FL to the Yucatan by Wed morning. N winds behind the front are expected to only be moderate to fresh across the Gulf, except for strong NE winds near Tampico, Mexico. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A shear line extends west-southwestward from the Virgin Islands across 16N70W to southeast of Jamaica at 16N75W. Widely scattered showers are seen along and up to 80 nm north of the shear line. A surface trough is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms just east of Honduras and Costa Rica. Moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present near and north of the shear line across the north-central basin, including the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and 7 to 10 ft seas are found at the south-central basin north of Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. In the forecast, the aforementioned shear line will dissipate overnight. As high pressure north of the area weakens slightly, the NE to E trade winds across the Caribbean will gradually diminish through early next week. Looking ahead, a cold front may reach the NW Caribbean on Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic to near 31N48W, then continues as a stationary front through a 1014 mb low near 21N62W to near the Virgin Islands. Scattered moderate convection is evident near and up to 100 nm northwest of the stationary front. A surface trough reaches southwestward from 30N47W to 24N51W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate convection is found north of 22N between 41W and 48W. A mid to upper-level low near the Canary Islands is generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Another surface trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms east of the Windward Islands from 13N to 16N between 50W and 57W. Moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft exist behind the stationary front north of 19N westward to the Florida coast. For the central and eastern Atlantic, gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas dominate north of 20N between the Africa coast and 50W/stationary front, including the Canary Islands. Near the Cabo Verde Islands, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft are present from 09N to 20N between the central Africa coast and 40W. To the west, gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are present from 06N to 19N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle E to SE winds and 6 to 9 ft seas in moderate mixed swell prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic Basin. In the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front is expected to dissipate by Sun. Fresh NE winds between the Bahamas and Cuba will diminish tomorrow as high pressure north of the area weakens. Large N to NE swell should continue to affect most of the forecast waters for the next couple days. On Sun night and Mon, E to SE winds will increase from the central Bahamas to northeast Florida ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The front will move off the northeast Florida coast Tue night and reach from 31N74W to the Upper Florida Keys by Wed night. $$ Chan