000 AXNT20 KNHC 221635 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Fri Dec 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N50W to eastern Puerto Rico. A recent ASCAT pass observed moderate to fresh N to NE winds within 200 nm behind the front. The latest altimeter data indicates seas of 10 to 12 ft are occurring between the front and 70W. As the NE winds in the area diminish, seas will drop below 12 ft later today. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecasts, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details about the Very Large Seas. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Ghana near 05N02W and continues southwestward to 01N05W. The ITCZ extends westward from 01N05W to 03N50.5W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the ITCZ south of 06N between 15W to the NE coast of Brazil. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Ridging over the eastern United States is producing fresh to strong NE to E wind across the Straights of Florida and into the southeast Gulf with seas 6 to 8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere across the Gulf of Mexico. No significant deep convection is occurring over the Gulf. For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Florida Straits will diminish by tonight. On Sat and Sun, an approaching cold front will enhance the return flow, becoming SE fresh to strong over the N Gulf. The cold front should emerge from the Texas coast Sun night, quickly move southeastward, and reach from the Florida Big Bend coast to near Veracruz, Mexico by Tue morning. N winds behind the front are expected to be only moderate to fresh across the Gulf, except for strong NE winds near Tampico. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A shear line extends from Puerto Rico, south of Hispaniola, to the offshore coast of Nicaragua. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are noted west of the shear line, including through the Windward and Mona Passages and north of Colombia. Seas in these areas within the strongest winds are 8 to 10 ft. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are evident across the remainder of the Caribbean waters west of 67W, along with seas of 5 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. In the forecast, the aforementioned shear line will dissipate by tonight. As high pressure north of the area weakens slightly, the NE to E trade winds across the Caribbean will gradually diminishing early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event. A cold front extends from near 31N50W to Puerto Rico. A pre- frontal trough is analyzed about 115 nm east of the front. Divergence aloft ahead of an upper-level trough is maintaining scattered showers and isolated strong convection north of 16N and between 42W and 60W. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds and moderate to rough seas are occurring north of 23N and east of the front to 40W. Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate to rough seas are evident in the rest of the Atlantic east of 40W. In the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from near 25N55W to Puerto Rico should stall by tonight, remain over the waters to the north of the Lesser Antilles on Sat, then dissipate by Sun. Fresh NE winds between the Bahamas and Cuba will diminish by Sat as high pressure north of the area weakens. E to SE winds will increase from the central Bahamas to NE Florida Sun night and Mon ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The cold front should move off the NE Florida coast Tue night. $$ Nepaul