026 AXNT20 KNHC 220539 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Fri Dec 22 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: A cold front passes through 31N53W to eastern Puerto Rico. Behind the cold front, recent scatterometer satellite data showed fresh to strong N-NE winds. Latest altimeter data indicate that seas greater than 12 ft are occurring between the front and 70W. Peak seas are 13 ft. As the NE winds in the area diminish, seas will drop below 12 ft early Fri. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecasts, and the Offshore Waters Forecasts, that are issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php, for more details about the Very Large Seas. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and continues to 04N18W. The ITCZ extends from 06N11W to 03N33W and to 03N51W. No deep convection is observed near the monsoon trough or ITCZ. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A 1031 mb high pressure system remains over the eastern United States and extends into the Gulf of Mexico. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong easterly winds over the eastern half of the Gulf waters, especially east of 88W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Strongest winds and highest seas are found in the Florida Straits. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. No significant deep convection is occurring today over the Gulf. In the forecast, a ridge dominates the Gulf waters producing fresh to strong NE to E winds over the eastern Gulf with moderate to rough seas. Winds and seas will diminish some through early next week as the high pressure shifts east, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the Gulf region on Sun night. The front will reach from Mobile, Alabama to near Poza Rica, Mexico by Mon morning, and from Apalachicola, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico by Mon night. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and building seas will precede the front Sat night into Sun. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds and seas of 8 or 9 ft are expected in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from eastern Puerto Rico to 17N73W, followed by a shear line that continues southwestward to the SW Caribbean before turning south toward Panama. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that strong to near gale-force easterly winds are occurring south of Hispaniola. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Fresh to strong NE-E winds are evident in the remainder of the Caribbean waters west of 67W, along with seas of 5-8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the remainder of the basin. In the forecast, building high pressure north of the area will bring a return to more typical E trade winds Fri through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event. A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N53W to eastern Puerto Rico. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed ahead of the front, from 19N61W to 31N53W. Divergence aloft sustains scattered showers and isolated strong convection north of 17N and between 45W and 52W. Fresh to strong southerly winds are occurring north of 27N and east of the front to 42W. Seas of 8-11 ft are present in the area described. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are evident in the rest of the Atlantic east of 50W. Ridging dominates the southwest tropical Atlantic. Satellite derived-wind data depict fresh to strong west of the aforementioned cold front. More information can be found in the Special Features section. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. In the forecast, the southern portion of the front will move across the waters near the northern Leeward Islands through at least Sat then stall and dissipate. Fresh to strong N to NE winds following the front will diminish through tonight. Northerly swell will linger into Sun. High pressure in the wake of the front will dominate the forecast waters over the next few days. Winds and seas will increase from the central Bahamas to northeast Florida Sun night and Mon ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The cold front will move off northeast Florida late on Tue. $$ Delgado