000 AXNT20 KNHC 141153 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu Dec 14 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1012 mb low is centered along a a stationary front near 25N44W. The front extends from the low east-northeastward to 31N33W and southwest from the low to 19N51W. Near gale to gale-force northeast to east winds along with seas of 15-19 ft are occurring northeast of the low from 26N to 30N between 40W-46W. Satellite imagery shows an increasing solid 60 nm wide band of numerous thunderstorms from 20N44W to 25N41W. Widespread areas of moderate to heavy rain, with embedded numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted east- northeast of the low from 24N to 31N between 32W-44W. This activity is shifting north-northeastward. This system will slide off to the east-northeast through this evening. As it does, the tight pressure gradient producing the near to gale to gale-force winds will slacken just enough to allow for the gale-force winds to drop to just below gale criteria. Seas will gradually subside through Fri within the area of the low pressure system. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Atlantic Significant North Swell: Large north swell continues to sustain 12 to 15 ft seas from 17N to 30N between 36W and 66W, including impacting Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands. This swell will subside by early this afternoon, with seas subsiding to less than 12 ft. Western Atlantic and Florida Offshore Waters Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas and to along the coast of western Cuba. Overnight ASCAT data passes show near gale-force northeast winds northwest of the frontal boundary. Strong northeast winds are south of 25N between 70W-78W and from 15N to 25N between 55W-65W. Broken to overcast multilayer clouds, with scattered showers and areas of rain are west of a line that extends from 31N54W to 20N70W. For the Significant North Swell and Western Atlantic/Florida Offshore Gales, please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details. Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: Expect frequent gusts to gale-force north of 27N and east of 90W eastward today and tonight. These conditions are expected once again on Sat N of 28N and east of 87W. Seas with these winds are forecast to be 10-16 ft. Winds diminish after Sat. Pleas read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Liberia near 05N09W to 05N14W, where overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N30W and to 04N46W. A north-to-south oriented surface trough is along 44W/45W from 05N to 10N. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 25W-32W and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 17W-20W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details on a frequent gust Gale Warning for the waters N of 27N and east of 90W. A western Atlantic Ocean stationary front that is the subject of one of the paragraphs of the SPECIAL FEATURES section passes through the Straits of Florida, and through the Yucatan Channel, to the coastal waters of the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize. An upper-level trough is along 77W/80W from 30N southward to Panama. An upper-level trough is also located over sections of Texas and Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds along with scattered to numerous showers and areas of moderate rain are over the basin north of 23N. Overnight ASCAT data shows strong to near gale-force northeast winds east of 91W. Moderate to fresh winds are over the rest of the area. Rough seas are east of 92W. Moderate seas are over the rest of the area. For the forecast, strong high pressure building across the eastern United States will support fresh to strong winds over the eastern Gulf. A large area of near gale to gale force winds will develop over the north central and east sections of the basin today through Fri. Gale winds are forecast to be confined to far the NE Gulf Sat and Sat night. A winter low pressure will develop north of the Yucatan Peninsula Fri night into Sat, then deepen as it tracks northeastward across the eastern Gulf and central Florida Sat night into Sun morning. A cold front will trail from the low, exiting the Gulf early on Sun. Expect widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms over most of the central and eastern Gulf through early Sun. Fresh to strong north winds will filter into the western Gulf Sat and Sat night. High pressure will then settle in over the area through early next week allowing for marine conditions to improve. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front is analyzed from along the coast of western Cuba to along the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, south to northeast Belize. A surface trough extends from near 13N81W to the Gulf of Honduras and inland Belize to inland southeastern Mexico. ASCAT data passes from the overnight hours shows fresh to strong northeast winds north of 18N and west of about 80W. Strong northeast winds are over the central section of the sea, while fresh to strong northeast winds are over the eastern section of the sea. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are elsewhere west of 80W. Rough seas cover the areas that are from Puerto Rico southwestward. Moderate seas are over the rest of the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the region will support fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean during the overnight tonight, before gradually diminishing. Fresh to strong northeast winds in the Windward Passage will diminish Fri night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the the ongoing gale warnings and the Significant North Swell. A stationary front extends from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas and to along the coast of western Cuba. Aside from those conditions described above under Special Features, expect moderate to fresh winds along with moderate seas throughout the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front extending from near 31N68W to the central Bahamas and to along the coast of western Cuba is forecast to lift northward toward the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida today through this evening. The combination of strong high pressure building north of the area and the front will result in near gale to gale force northeast to east winds and building seas over the waters west of 74W and north of 26N through Fri, with these winds spreading north- northeastward to the north-central forecast waters Mon and Mon night. A winter low pressure is forecast to move from the Gulf of Mexico, across Florida, and into the Atlantic waters this weekend. A large area of gale force winds is possible east of the low. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over most of the western half of the area through the weekend. $$ Aguirre