697 AXNT20 KNHC 131114 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Wed Dec 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event and Gale Warning... A stationary front extends from 30N35W to 17N56W supporting a broad area of showers and tstms. Surface ridging between a stationary front across the Bahamas and this second front is leading to a tight pressure gradient that continue to support a broad area of fresh to near gale force NE winds with rough seas to 16 ft. A developing low within the front will lead to the development of gale force winds later this morning. Gales are forecast to continue through tonight as the low gradually lifts northward. However, seas in excess of 12 ft will continue to affect the central Atlantic through Fri night as the low moves away of the region. ...Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning ... A stationary front across the central Bahamas will transition to a cold front tonight as strong high pressure continues to build over the SE CONUS. A tight pressure gradient between these two features will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds across the offshore waters of Florida and N of the Bahamas, increasing to near gale-force this evening and reaching gale speeds Thu and Thu night. Seas currently to 10 ft will build to 17 ft on Thu following the peak gale winds. A second gale event is forecast for Sun associated with a developing low over the Gulf of Mexico that will move across Florida during Sat. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exteds from 04N08W to 06N19W where the ITCZ begins and then continues along 04N34W to 05N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 07N between 10W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging extending from the N covers the entire basin, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas in the 5 to 8 ft range W of 90W. Over the eastern half of the basin, a tighter pressure gradient between the ridge and a stationary front over the NW Caribbean supports fresh to strong NE winds and seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. For the forecast, strong high pressure building across the SE United States will continue to support and increase the areal coverage of fresh to strong winds over the E Gulf to the NW Gulf by early Thursday. A large area of near gale-force winds will develop over the north-central and E basin Thu through Fri night with the potential to reach gale-force. Low pressure will develop N of the Yucatan Peninsula Fri night into Sat and then track NE across central Florida Sat night into Sun morning. A cold front will move into the western Gulf Sat, with strong to near gale- force winds and rough seas. The front will merge with the area of low pressure by Sat night and exit the basin Sun morning. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from E Cuba to Honduras and is followed by fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas. The front is also supporting a broad area of scattered showers and tstms in the NW Caribbean. Strong high pressure and associated ridging extending to the northern Caribbean continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Seas are rough over these regions with peak seas to 13 ft off the coast of Colombia. For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the region will support fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through tonight. Seas in these regions will be in the 8 to 12 ft range, highest over Colombia adjacent waters where winds will reach near gale-force. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over the NW Caribbean behind the front will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds by this evening as the front starts to weaken while retreating back to the SE Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage are forecast to diminish Fri night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the Special Features section, for details about a Significant Swell Event and two Gale Warnings. A stationary front extending from 31N67W to E Cuba is generating scattered showers across Florida and adjacent waters between the Peninsula and the front. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas in the 7 to 10 ft range are over this region as well. Farther east, over the central Atlantic, a stationary front extends from 30N35W to 17N56W, also supporting a broad area of showers and tstms. Surface ridging is elsewhere between the fronts and E of the central Atlantic boundary. A tight pressure gradient between the W Atlantic ridge and the second front continue to support a broad area of fresh to near gale force NE winds with rough seas to 16 ft. A developing low within the front will lead to the development of gale force winds later this morning and continuing through tonight as the low gradually lifts northward. For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front over the western Atlantic is forecast to lift northward towards the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida today. Strong high pressure building north of the area will lead to the development of strong to near-gale force NE to E winds and building seas over the northern Bahamas and Straits of Florida through today, with these winds spreading northward and eastward through Fri. Gale-force winds are possible east of Florida later this week. An area of low pressure is forecast to move from the Gulf of Mexico, across Florida, and into the Atlantic waters this weekend. A large area of gale force winds are possible east of the low. $$ Ramos