825 AXNT20 KNHC 130605 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Dec 13 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event and a Central Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning... A central Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through 31N34W to 27N40W 19N50W 18N57W. The sea heights are 12 feet or higher, from 19N to 26N between 45W and 60W. NE near gale-force to gale-force winds are from 24N northward between 35W and 45W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 20N northward between 30W and 46W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 16N northward between 25W and 60W. Near gale-force NE winds are from 20N to 28N between 50W and 60W. Strong NE winds are from Puerto Rico and the NE Caribbean Sea islands to 25N between 60W and 70W. Moderate to rough seas are from 20N to 27N between 60W and 70W; from 08N to 19N between 50W and 60W; and from 16N northward from 40W eastward. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...Western Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning ... A western Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through 31N68W, to 29N70W, crossing the central Bahamas, beyond Cuba near 21N78W, to 18N80W in the NW Caribbean Sea, to a 1014 mb Gulf of Honduras 16N87W low pressure center, to southern Belize. Strong NE winds are from the Straits of Florida northward from 75W westward. Moderate to rough seas are mostly from the stationary front northward, from the Bahamas northward. Slight seas are from the Bahamas southward. The 45-hour forecast consists of a 31N59W 24N80W cold front. Expect NE to E gale-force winds, and sea heights to range from 10 feet to 12 feet, from 24N to 28N between 78W and 81W. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the Prime Meridian along 04N, to 04N10W, to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N23W 04N32W 06N40W 05N50W. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 210 nm to the south of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ between 18W and 25W, and within 60 nm to the south of the ITCZ between 33W and 37W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 50W eastward. A north-to-south oriented surface trough is along 49W/50W from 07N to 17N. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 06N to 17N between 45W and 55W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge passes through SE Louisiana, to the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. The GFS model for 700 mb shows that a trough extends from the Yucatan Peninsula northward. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds span the Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 90W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is from 90W westward. Mostly fresh to some strong anticyclonic wind flow covers the area. Some rough seas are in the area of the SE Gulf and in the Yucatan Channel. Moderate seas cover much of the rest of the area. An exception is for slight seas near the coast of Mexico near 20N97W. Strong high pressure will build across the eastern United States, increasing areal coverage of fresh to strong winds over much of the Gulf by Thursday. A large area of near gale-force winds will develop over the north-central and E basin Thu through Fri night. Low pressure will develop over the southern Gulf by the end of the week, and track NE across southern Florida Sat night. This will further tighten the pressure gradient, with gale-force winds possible over the SE Gulf Fri. A cold front will move into the western Gulf this weekend, with strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas west of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A western Atlantic Ocean stationary front passes through 31N68W, to 29N70W, crossing the central Bahamas, beyond Cuba near 21N78W, to 18N80W in the NW Caribbean Sea, to a 1014 mb Gulf of Honduras 16N87W low pressure center, to southern Belize. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 14N northward from Jamaica and SE Cuba westward. Strong NE winds, and moderate to rough seas, are from the stationary front northward. Rough seas are from the Greater Antilles southward from Puerto Rico to Central America. Moderate to rough seas are in the rest of the Caribbean Sea. The monsoon trough is along 11N74W beyond southern Panama. The GFS model for 700 mb shows that broad cyclonic wind flow is covering the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: isolated moderate is from 14N southward from 73W westward. Shallow patches of moisture are supporting isolated showers throughout the rest of the area. The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the time period that ended at 13/0000 UTC, are: 0.16 in Bermuda; and 0.09 in Guadeloupe, according to the Pan American Temperature and Precipitation Tables, MIATPTPAN. Strong high pressure N of the region will support fresh to strong trade winds across the central and eastern Caribbean through Wed night. Seas in these regions will be in the 8 to 12 ft range, highest over Colombia adjacent waters. A stationary front extends from E Cuba to Honduras, with fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to the north of the front. These winds will continue through Wed morning when the front will lift northward towards the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico. Winds and seas will gradually decrease the end of the week into the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for details about the Central Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event/ the Central Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning; and for the Western Atlantic Ocean Gale-Force Wind Warning. Mostly moderate and some fresh winds, and moderate seas, are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean. A stationary front extending from 31N67W to E Cuba is forecast to lift northward towards the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida tonight. Strong high pressure building north of the area will lead to the development of strong to near-gale force NE to E winds and building seas over the northern Bahamas and Straits of Florida through Wed, with these winds spreading northward through Thu night. Gale-force winds are possible east of Florida later this week. An area of low pressure is forecast to move from the Gulf of Mexico, across Florida, and into the Atlantic waters this weekend. A large area of gale force winds are possible east of the low. $$ mt