000 AXNT20 KNHC 121041 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Tue Dec 12 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event... Strong to near gale-force NE winds and sea heights of 12 to 13 feet are ongoing in the Atlantic subtropical waters from 20N to 31N between 30W and 66W. The sea heights will build to 17 feet this evening and into Thu. The area of sea heights of 12 feet is expected to expand SW and reach the Puerto Rico Atlantic regional waters tonight through Thu. The rough seas will continue to affect this region through Thursday night, before subsiding to the range of 8 feet to 10 feet by Friday. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...Central Atlantic Gale Warning... A low pressure center is forecast to develop in the central subtropical Atlantic Wed evening into early Thu. The low will deepen and develop gale-force winds in the N and W semicircles Wed morning through the evening hours. Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, that is issued by the National Hurricane Center, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 05N23W. The ITCZ continues froom 05N23W, to 03N35W 03N49W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 07N southward from 50W eastward, and from 12N southward between 50W and 60W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas are ongoing over the SE Gulf this morning. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas will prevail over the SE Gulf through later this morning behind a stationary front currently in the NW Caribbean. However, strong high pressure building in the wake of the front will lead to the redevelopment of fresh to strong NE to E winds basin-wide this evening into the weekend as the front retreats back towards the Gulf again. Near gale-force to gale-force winds are likely to develop over the north-central and NE basin Thu through Fri night. A low pressure will develop N of the Yucatan Peninsula Fri night into Sat and track NE across southern Florida Sat night as a new cold front emerges from the coast of Texas followed by strong to near gale-force N winds and rough seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong trade winds prevail across the central, eastern and portions of the SW Caribbean Sea this morning. A stationary front is over the NW Caribbean extending from E Cuba to NE Nicaragua followed by fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas. For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the region will support fresh to strong trade winds across the central, eastern and portions of the SW Caribbean Sea through Thu, except for near gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia. Rough seas in these regions will be in the 8 to 12 ft range, highest over Colombia adjacent waters. Fresh to strong winds behind the front in the NW Caribbean winds will continue through Wed morning as the front stalls from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras before retreating back towards the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage Tue evening through Fri morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the Special Features section for details about a Significant Swell Event and a Gale Warning for the Central Atlantic. A stationary front extends from 31N70W to E Cuba. For the forecast W of 55W, the stationary front is forecast to retreat back towards the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida this evening. Strong high pressure building north of the area will lead to the development of strong to near-gale force NE to E winds and building seas over the northern Bahamas offshore waters and Straits of Florida today through Wed, and over the Florida and the remainder Bahamas offshore waters Wed through the weekend. Gale force winds are likely to develop Thu evening through the end of the forecast period. $$ Ramos