000 AXNT20 KNHC 111742 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Mon Dec 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1740 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front is extending from 31N76W SW to western Cuba. Gale-force winds ahead of a cold front over the offshore waters N of 27N and W of 67W will continue through about noon today when the front is forecast to extend from 31N72W to central Cuba. Afterward, fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will continue ahead of the front through this evening. The front is forecast to stall W of Bermuda to central Cuba Tue morning, before retreating back towards the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida on Wed. Strong high pressure building north of the area will lead to the development of strong to near-gale force NE to E winds and building seas over the central and northern Bahamas offshore waters Tue and Wed, and over the Florida offshore waters Wed through Fri night. There is a high chance for the re-development of gales or gust to gale force winds over a great portion of the region with the retreat of the front. Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A tight pressure gradient from high pressure extending a ridge over the central Atlantic and a trough of low pressure between 48W and 50W will support strong NE winds just N of the trough. Twelve ft seas are seen north of 23N between 25W and 54W. Seas will build to 15 ft late tonight/early Tue with the area of 12 ft seas expanding to the regional waters of Puerto Rico and eastward to 35W through Wed morning. Rough seas will continue to affect this region through Thu before subsiding to 8-10 ft Thu night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the Guinea coast near 11N15W to 09N19W. The ITCZ extends from 09N19W to 03N44W. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A strong pressure gradient between a cold front that extends from western Cuba to the east of the Yucatan Peninsula and high pressure building behind it, is supporting fresh to strong NE winds in the E and SW Gulf. Rough seas in the 7 to 10 ft range cover these regions, being the highest seas in the SW Gulf. Mainly gentle winds and seas 2 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds in the E and SW Gulf will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds by noon today. High pressure building north of the area will lead to fresh to near gale force winds across the E and NW Gulf Tue evening through Thu with potential gale force winds developing over the north-central and NE basin Fri and Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Middle to upper level diffluent flow is supporting scattered showers and tstms over the NW Caribbean ahead of an approaching cold front. Currently, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE over this region, with seas 6 to 8 ft. In the E Caribbean, easterly winds are also moderate to fresh with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Strong high pressure N of the area, continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the central basin with 8 to 11 ft seas. For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the region will support fresh to strong trade winds across the central and portions of the SW Caribbean Sea through Thu, except for near gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia. Rough seas in these regions will be in the 8 to 12 ft range, highest over Colombia adjacent waters. A cold front over the NW Caribbean is followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds and rough seas. These winds will reach strong speeds in the NW Caribbean tonight through Wed morning as the front stalls from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Tue before retreating back towards the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico on Wed. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage Tue evening through early Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning for waters N of the Bahamas and a significant swell event over the central Atlantic. A strong cold front extending from 31N76W SW to western Cuba. Gale-force winds ahead of a cold front over the offshore waters N of 27N and W of 67W while seas range between 8 and 13 ft. Additionally, a line of numerous moderate to strong convection is depicted ahead of the cold front north of the western Bahamas. A stationary front extends from 31N29W to 23N45W. Surface ridging covers the subtropical waters between the fronts, which is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds between both frontal boundaries. Surface ridging covers the E subtropical Atlantic waters, however a weaker pressure gradient support gentle to moderate NE wind over that region where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. For the forecast W of 55W, gale-force winds ahead of a cold front over the offshore waters N of 27N and W of 67W will continue through about noon today when the front is forecast to extend from 31N72W to central Cuba. Afterward, fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will continue ahead of the front through this evening. The front is forecast to stall W of Bermuda to central Cuba Tue morning, before retreating back towards the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida on Wed. Strong high pressure building north of the area will lead to the development of strong to near-gale force NE to E winds and building seas over the central and northern Bahamas offshore waters Tue and Wed, and over the Florida offshore waters Wed through Fri night. $$ KRV