712 AXNT20 KNHC 111021 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Mon Dec 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front extending from 31N79W SW to Cape Canaveral will extend from 31N71W to central Cuba by tonight. Gale force winds ahead and behind the front N of 27N will diminish by noon today. Afterward, fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas to 11 ft will continue ahead of the front through this evening. The front is forecast to stall W of Bermuda to central Cuba Tue morning, before retreating back towards the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida on Wed. The pressure gradient between very strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressure associated with the frontal boundary will lead to the development of strong to near-gale force NE to E winds and building seas over the central and northern Bahamas offshore waters Tue and Wed, and over the Florida offshore waters Wed through Fri night. There is a high chance for the re-development of gales or gust to gale force winds over a great portion of the region with the retreat of the front. Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A tight pressure gradient from high pressure extending a ridge over the central Atlantic and a trough of low presure between 48W and 50W will support strong NE winds just N of the trough. Seas will build to 12 ft by this afternoon north of 23N between 30W and 54W. Seas will build to 15 ft late tonight/early Tue with the area of 12 ft seas expanding to the regional waters of Puerto Rico and eastward to 35W through Wed morning. Rough seas will continue to affect this region through late Thu before subsiding to 8-10 ft Fri evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the Guinea coast near 10N15W to 09N18W. The ITCZ extends from 09N18W to 00N43W. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front extends from Cape Coral, Florida SW to the Yucatan Peninsula this morning. A strong pressure gradient between the front and high pressure building behind it is supporting fresh to strong northerly winds in the E and SW gulf. Rough seas in the 8 to 15 ft range cover these regions, being the highest seas in the SW gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will exit the basin later this morning. Winds in the SW and E gulf will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds by noon today and seas will subside below 8 ft at night. Looking ahead, the aforementioned front is forecast to stall across the western Atlantic and NW Caribbean on Tue, before drifting back towards the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf on Wed. The pressure gradient between very strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressure associated with the frontal boundary will lead to fresh to near gale force winds across the E and NW gulf Tue evening through Thu with potential gale force winds developing over the north-central and NE basin Thu night through Fri night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Middle to upper level diffluent flow is supporting scattered showers and tstms over the NW Caribbean ahead of an approaching cold front that will exit the Gulf of Mexico later this morning. An altimeter pass indicate seas in the 4 to 7 ft range over this region, except for 8 to 9 ft in the Yucatan Channel. Currently, winds are moderate to fresh from the NW over this region. In the E Caribbean, winds are also moderate to fresh with seas in the 5 to 7 ft range. Strong high pressure N of the area, continue to support fresh to strong trade winds in the central basin with 8 to 10 ft seas. For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the region will support fresh to strong trade winds across the central and portions of the SW Caribbean Sea through Thu, except for near gale-force winds off the coast of Colombia. Rough seas in these regions will be in the 8 to 12 ft range, highest over Colombia adjacent waters. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean this morning followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds and rough seas. These winds will reach strong speeds in the NW Caribbean tonight through Wed morning as the front stalls from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Tue before retreating back towards the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico on Wed. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will bring fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage Tue evening through early Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning for waters N of the Bahamas and a significant swell event over the central Atlantic. A strong cold front extends from 31N79W SW to Cape Canaveral. Gales are ahead and behind of the front N of 27N while seas range between 8 and 12 ft. A stationary front extends from 31N29W to 23N45W. Surface ridging covers the subtropical waters between the fronts, which is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds between both frontal boundaries. Surface ridging covers the E subtropical Atlantic waters, however a weaker pressure gradient support gentle to moderate E to NE wind over that region where seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range. For the forecast W of 55W, gale-force winds ahead and behind a cold front over the offshore waters N of 27N and W of 67W will continue through about noon today when the front is forecast to extend from 31N72W to central Cuba. Afterward, fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas to 11 ft will continue ahead of the front through this evening. The front is forecast to stall W of Bermuda to central Cuba Tue morning, before retreating back towards the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida on Wed. The pressure gradient between very strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressure associated with the frontal boundary will lead to the development of strong to near-gale force NE to E winds and building seas over the central and northern Bahamas offshore waters Tue and Wed, and over the Florida offshore waters Wed through Fri night. Gale or gust to gale-force winds are possible over the Florida and Bahamas offshore waters Wed through Fri. $$ Ramos