000 AXNT20 KNHC 102242 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Dec 11 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning: A strong cold front stretches across the Gulf of Mexico from the Big Bend of Florida to northern Yucatan and will move SE of the basin Mon. Gales are occurring over much of the SW gulf of Mexico, with gales also developing offshore the Florida Panhandle. A small area of storm force winds are occurring offshore Veracruz, Mexico. Storm conditions will end this evening and then gales will end overnight. Seas are over 12 ft for much of the western Gulf of Mexico, with heights reaching 16 to 17 ft offshore Veracruz. These seas will gradually subside, but remain above 12 ft in the Bay of Campeche through tonight. Seas will fall below 8 ft by Tue. Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the Florida coast tonight. The front will extend from 31N77W to Melbourne, FL by tonight and from 31N71W to central Cuba by Mon night. Gale force winds will develop on both sides of the front N of 29N tonight and end by Mon as the front begins to weaken. Rough seas to 11 ft can be expected behind the front. As the front weakens, strong winds will diminish by Mon afternoon. Rough seas will continue to linger across waters W of 67W through midweek as the next system moves across the Atlantic. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts Forecasts, issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details on these Special Features... ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the Guinea-Sierra Leone border near 09N14W to 08N21W. The ITCZ extends from 08N21W to 06N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13N between 22W and 40W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for more information about the Storm Warning in the SW Gulf. A squall line extends from the Florida Peninsula to the Yucatan Peninsula, bringing dangerous marine conditions due to frequent lightning, gusty winds, and likely localized rough seas. Behind the front, strong high pressure is building across the Gulf of Mexico. Ahead of the front and squall line, moderate to fresh S to SW winds prevail, with seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, the squall line and cold front will move SE of the area overnight. Winds and seas will gradually subside across the basin late Mon. Looking ahead, the aforementioned front is forecast to stall across the western Atlantic and NW Caribbean on Tue, before drifting back towards the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf on Wed. The pressure gradient between very strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressure associated with the frontal boundary may induce strong to minimal gale force winds and rough to very rough seas across the northern Gulf towards the end of the work week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure from the central Atlantic stretches across the northern Caribbean. Thunderstorms are noted off the Nicaragua coast but otherwise, no significant convection is noted at this time. The pressure gradient between lower pressure along the coast of Colombia and the high pressure north of the basin is leading to fresh to strong trade winds across the central basin. Mainly fresh trade winds are occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Rough seas of 8 to 11 ft extend across the central Caribbean between 65W and 82W. Seas are 6 to 7 ft near the Lesser Antilles. In the NW Caribbean, gentle trade winds prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the region will continue to bring a large area of strong trade winds across the central Caribbean Sea through tonight. The aerial extent of the trades will diminish on Mon as a cold front reaches the NW Caribbean. Fresh N to NE winds with seas building to 9 to 11 ft in the Yucatan Channel will follow the front. The front will stall from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Tue before retreating back towards the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf of Mexico on Wed. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will bring again a large a area of fresh to strong trade winds Tue night into Wed. Strong to near gale force winds are expected offshore Colombia. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning for waters N of the Bahamas in association with a cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast tonight. The strong cold front that will bring gale force winds to the Atlantic coast is still west of the area in the the Gulf of Mexico. In response, strong S winds prevail for areas N of 26N and W of 70W. seas in this are have increased to 6 to 8 ft. Strong E winds also prevail across the Turks and Caicos and offshore Hispaniola, along with seas of up to 8 ft. Across the central Atlantic, surface ridging stretches across the area anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure near 36N59W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds dominate waters N of 21N and W of 45W, with seas of 7 to 10 ft. A stationary front extends from 31N34W to 22N48W, with gentle to moderate E to SE winds ahead of it. In the eastern Atlantic, high pressure also extends across the area leading to benign conditions. Mainly gentle winds prevail with seas 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, by this afternoon, the cold front is forecast to move into the NW forecast waters this evening. Strong to near- gale force winds are likely on either side of the front, with brief gales possible tonight N of 29N between NE Florida and 73W. Seas will build ahead and behind the cold front. The front is forecast to stall from Bermuda to central Cuba on Tue, before retreating back towards the NW Bahamas and the Straits of Florida on Wed. The pressure gradient between very strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressure associated with the frontal boundary may induce strong to near gale force winds NE to E winds and building seas to the east of Florida to about 70W. Gale conditions are possible toward the end of the work- week. $$ Konarik