000 AXNT20 KNHC 101713 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Sun Dec 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning: A strong cold front stretches across the Gulf of Mexico from the Florida Panhandle to the Mexico coast near Veracruz. The front will stretch from the Big Bend of Florida to northern Yucatan by this evening, then move SE of the basin by Mon. The latest scatterometer from late this morning shows widespread gale-force winds across the western Gulf of Mexico. Frequent gusts to gale force are also occurring off the Texas coast. The latest buoy data show seas are quickly building behind the front with seas ranging 12 to 15 in the NW Gulf. The 12 ft seas extend likely as far south as Tampico, Mexico. Storm force winds will begin off the coast of Veracruz this afternoon as the front continues moving south with seas building to near 16 ft. Storm force winds will end this evening, but gale force winds will continue across the southwest Gulf through tonight. Strong winds across the Gulf will diminish by Monday with seas subsiding below 8 ft by Tue. Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move off the Florida coast tonight. The front will extend from 31N77W to Melbourne, FL by tonight and from 31N71W to central Cuba by Mon night. Gale force winds will develop on both sides of the front N of 29N tonight and end by Mon as the front begins to weaken. Rough seas to 11 ft can be expected behind the front. As the front weakens, strong winds will diminish by Mon afternoon. Rough seas will continue to linger across waters W of 67W through midweek as the next system moves across the Atlantic. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts Forecasts, issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details on these Special Features... ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coastal plains of Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 08N21W. The ITCZ extends from 08N21W to 05N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 14W and 41W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for more information about the Storm Warning in the SW Gulf. An impressive squall line stretches across the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico with dangerous marine conditions due to frequent lightning, gusty winds, and likely localized rough seas. Behind the front, strong high pressure is building across the NW Gulf. Ahead of the front and squall line, fresh to locally strong SW winds are occurring with gentle to moderate S to SW winds across the rest of the southeast Gulf. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in across the eastern and southern Gulf according to buoys. For the forecast, the wide band of showers and thunderstorms is associated with the front forecast to reach from Cedar Key, FL to Merida, Mexico in the NW Yucatan peninsula this evening, and exit the basin Mon morning. Strong to gale force winds are expected behind the front across the western Gulf, from offshore Texas southward to the Bay of Campeche through this evening. Minimal storm force NW winds are expected offshore off the Veracruz area this afternoon. Seas are forecast to build to 14 to 16 ft with the strongest winds. In the eastern and central Gulf, strong to near-gale force winds will follow the front. Winds and seas will gradually subside across the basin late Mon. Looking ahead, the aforementioned front may stall across the western Atlantic and NW Caribbean early this week, before moving back northward as a warm front toward the middle of week. The pressure gradient between very strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressure associated with the warm front may induce strong to minimal gale force winds and rough to very rough seas across the northern Gulf towards the end of the work week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure from the central Atlantic stretches across the northern Caribbean. Thunderstorms are noted off the Nicaragua coast but otherwise, no significant convection is noted at this time. The pressure gradient between lower pressure along the coast of Colombia and the high pressure north of the basin is leading to fresh to strong trade winds across the central basin. Moderate to fresh trade winds are occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Rough seas of 8 to 10 ft extend across the central and portions of the eastern Caribbean between 65W and 82W. Seas are 6 to 7 ft near the Lesser Antilles. In the NW Caribbean, moderate trade winds prevail with seas 5 to 6 ft. For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the area will continue to bring a large area of strong trade winds across the central Caribbean Sea through tonight. The aerial extent of the trades will diminish on Mon as a cold front reaches the NW Caribbean. Fresh N to NE winds with seas building to 9 to 11 ft in the Yucatan Channel will follow the front. The front will stall over the NW Caribbean early in the week before retreating back north of the basin as a warm front by mid-week. Strengthening high pressure in the wake of the front will bring again a large a area of fresh to strong trade winds Tue night into Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning for waters N of the Bahamas in association with a cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast tonight. The strong cold front that will bring gale force winds to the Atlantic coast is still west of the area in the the Gulf of Mexico. In response, fresh to locally strong SE winds prevail across the southwest N Atlantic, particularly off the Florida coast. Buoy data show seas ranging 4 to 6 ft off the coast of Florida and W of 65W. Fresh to locally strong easterly winds prevail across the southern Bahama and Turks and Caicos. Across the central Atlantic, surface ridging stretches across the area anchored by a 1031 mb high pressure near 36N60W. The latest scatterometer depicts moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the region. Seas range 5 to 9 ft. A stationary front extends from 31N34W to 22N48W. Behind this front, moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail with gentle to moderate E to SE winds ahead of it. Seas range 8 to 11 ft across the central and western Atlantic, from the Windward Passage southward to the Lesser Antilles, N of 14N and and as far east as 28W. In the eastern Atlantic, high pressure also extends across the area leading to benign conditions. Gentle to moderate E to NE winds prevail with seas 4 to 6 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, by this afternoon, fresh to strong southerly flow will set up over the waters E of NE Florida to about 70W in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is expected to move into the NW forecast waters this evening. Strong to near-gale force winds are likely on both sides of the front, with brief gales possible tonight N of 29N between NE Florida and 73W. Seas will build ahead and behind the cold front. The front is forecast to stall late Mon night from Bermuda to central Cuba. By mid-week, the front is expected to lift N as a warm front. The pressure gradient between very strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressure associated with the warm front may induce strong NE to E winds with higher gusts and building seas to the east of Florida by mid- week. Gale conditions are possible toward the end of the work-week. $$ AReinhart