324 AXNT20 KNHC 101051 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sun Dec 10 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Storm Warning: A strong cold front is moving across the NW Gulf followed by strong to gale-force northerly winds and a line of scattered showers and thunderstorms. The front will move SE and stretch from Florida to the Bay of Campeche tonight, then move SE of the region on Mon. Gales following the front will remain W of 94W, spreading S into the Bay of Campeche this afternoon where winds will reach storm-force offshore Veracruz. Winds of storm-force will be short-lived as they are forecast to end by the early evening hours. However, gale conditions will continue thereafter through early Mon. Rough seas will be between 12 to 16 ft, and are forecast to fall below 8 ft Mon night. Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A cold front will move off the SE U.S. coast tonight, then slide east across the waters early next week. Gales will develop on both sides of the front N of 29N and W of 75W tonight into Mon, before the front begins to weaken and winds decrease some. Seas ahead of the front will reach 7 to 9 ft, with 8 to 11 ft seas behind the front. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts Forecasts, issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details on these Special Features... ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 06N18W. The ITCZ is observed from 06N18W to 06N34W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 22W and 45W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... A strong cold front extends from SE Louisiana SW to 25N97W in NE Mexico. Strong to gale-force N to NW winds follow the front with rough seas to 9 ft, but rapidly building. The front will reach from Cedar Key, FL to Merida, Mexico in the NW Yucatan peninsula this evening, and exit the basin Mon morning. Strong to gale force winds are expected behind the front across the western Gulf, from offshore Texas southward to the Bay of Campeche through this evening. Minimal storm force NW winds are expected offshore of the Veracruz area this afternoon. Seas are forecast to build to 14 to 16 ft with the strongest winds. In the eastern and central Gulf, strong to near-gale force winds will follow the front. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to accompany the front as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds and seas will gradually subside across the basin late Mon. Looking ahead, the aforementioned front may stall across the western Atlantic and NW Caribbean early next week, before moving back northward as a warm front toward the middle of next week. The pressure gradient between very strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressure associated with the warm front may induce strong to minimal gale force winds and rough to very rough seas across the northern Gulf by the middle of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A trade wind regime enhanced by a tight pressure gradient between high pressure in the subtropics and lower pressure in the tropics is leading to mainly dry conditions across the basin with strong NE to E winds over the central basin. Fresh to locally strong winds prevail in the eastern basin, with mainly moderate to fresh winds in the west. Seas are 9 to 11 ft in the central basin as well as downwind in the SW Caribbean. Seas in the eastern Caribbean area 6 to 9 ft and in the NW basin, seas range from 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage will continue through tonight, and the large area of strong to near-gale force trade winds across the central and portions of the SW Caribbean Sea will continue through the forecast period. Fresh to strong trades in the E Caribbean will diminish to moderate to fresh Sun. However, by Wed a low may develop over the central subtropical Atlantic waters, and a tight pressure gradient will develop, leading to a return of fresh to strong winds across the E basin Tue night into Thu. Looking ahead, the next cold front will enter the northwest Caribbean early Mon, followed by fresh N to NE winds with seas building to 8 to 11 ft in the Yucatan Channel. The front will stall over the NW Caribbean early in the week before retreating back north of the basin as a warm front by mid-week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning for waters N of the Bahamas in association with a cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast Sun night. A cold front enters the area near 31N35W and extends to 27N45W where the boundary is stationary and weakening, stretching to the Turks and Caicos islands. High pressure situated offshore of the mid-Atlantic states is supporting a large swath of fresh NE-E winds behind the front, noted in the latest scatterometer pass. Seas range from 6 to 10 ft. Locally strong winds are noted south of 24N, including within the Caribbean passages, where seas are 8 to 11 ft. Winds shift southerly around the ridge west of 77W and north of 27N, where seas are around 4 ft. Across the remainder of the basin, moderate to fresh trades with mainly 5 to 7 ft seas are noted. For the forecast W of 55W, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure along 31N and lower pressure associated with the dissipating front will continue to produce fresh to strong NE to E trade winds south of 24N through Sun. On Sun, fresh to strong southerly flow will set up over the waters east of northeast Florida to about 70W in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is expected to move into the NW forecast waters late Sun. Strong to near-gale force winds are likely on both sides of the front, with brief gales possible Sun night N of 29N between NE Florida and 73W. Seas will build ahead and behind the cold front. The front is forecast to stall late Mon night from Bermuda to central Cuba. By mid-week, the front is expected to lift N as a warm front. The pressure gradient between very strong high pressure north of the area and lower pressure associated with the warm front may induce fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas to the east of Florida by mid-week $$ Ramos