000 AXNT20 KNHC 082304 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Sat Dec 9 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Mexico Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf Sat evening. The front will reach from Mobile, AL to Tuxpan, Mexico Sun morning, from Cedar Key, FL to Merida, Mexico in the NW Yucatan peninsula Sun evening, and exit the basin Mon morning. Strong to gale force winds are expected behind the front across the western Gulf, from offshore southern Texas southward to the Bay of Campeche Sat night through Sun evening. Minimal storm force NW winds are expected over the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area Sun afternoon. Seas are forecast to build to 16 to 18 ft with the strongest winds. A line of strong thunderstorms is likely to accompany the cold front as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds and seas will gradually subside across the basin late Mon. Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front extends from 31N39W to 23N54W, where it becomes a stationary front to the Dominican Republic near 19N70W. Although winds associated with this front have diminished south of 31N, large NW swell, with seas of 12 to 14 ft are present north of 27N and between the front and 58W. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are noted between 58W and 63W, and also east of the front to 35W and north of 28N. These seas will subside gradually and decay below 12 ft by Sat. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast and the Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details on both special features. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 07N13.5W to 03N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is observed along the ITCZ south of 07.5N between 24W and 48W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Pleas see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information about the Gale Waning that will begin Saturday night over the western Gulf of Mexico. A 1025 mb high pressure centered over the western Atlantic near 30N72W spreads ridging over the Gulf of Mexico. Cloudiness with isolated light showers is observed over the northern and eastern Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds with seas of 2 to 4 ft are found east of 93W, while moderate to fresh southerly return flow prevails with seas 4 to 6 ft west of 93W. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh return flow is expected over the western Gulf tonight and Sat ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Sat evening. The front will reach from Mobile, AL to Tuxpan, Mexico Sun morning, from Cedar Key, FL to Merida, Mexico in the NW Yucatan peninsula Sun evening, and exit the basin Mon morning. Strong to gale force winds are expected behind the front across the western Gulf, from offshore southern Texas southward to the Bay of Campeche Sat night through Sun evening. Minimal storm force NW winds are expected over the SW Gulf, including the Veracruz area Sun afternoon. Seas are forecast to build to 16 to 18 ft with the strongest winds. A line of strong thunderstorms is likely to accompany the cold front as it moves across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds and seas will gradually subside across the basin late Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the Greater Antilles and lower pressures over Colombia are helping to sustain strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean Sea, with moderate to fresh NE to E winds elsewhere in the basin, east of 81W. Strong winds are occurring south of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in the far NW basin. In addition a deep layer trough is producing isolated moderate convection from 16.5N to 20N between NW of Jamaica and the coast of Belize. Seas are 7 to 10 ft in the south- central Caribbean and 4 to 7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the lee of Cuba will persist tonight. Fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage will continue through Sat night. Strengthening high pressure N of the area will bring an increase in the aerial extent of strong trade winds across the Caribbean Sea during the upcoming weekend, with the strongest winds near the coast of Colombia. Looking ahead, the next cold front will enter the northwest Caribbean late Sun night or early Mon, followed by fresh N to NE winds with seas building to 9 ft in the Yucatan Channel. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN Please see the Special Features section above for details about very rough seas in the central Atlantic, north of 27N between 35W and 63W. The main feature in the basin is the front described in the Special Features section, which extends from 31N39W to 23N54W. West of the front, a 1025 mb high pressure is centered east of Florida near 30N72W. A surface ridge extends ESE from the high pressure to the east coast of Florida. Gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are near the ridge axis. South of 23N and west of the front, moderate to locally fresh NE to E trade winds prevail with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Large N to NE swell prevails to the northeast and east of the Bahamas. To the east of the front, a surface ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure near the Madeira Islands. Light to gentle winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are near this narrow ridge axis, but much rougher seas are found to the north, northwest, and east. To the south, in the tropics, moderate to fresh NE trade winds and 5 to 8 ft seas prevail from 04N to 20N between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from near 23N55W to the Dominican Republic near 19N70W. The front will remain nearly stationary along 20N-21N on Sat. Strengthening high pressure N of the area will push the front farther south on Sun reaching the northern Leeward Islands as a dissipating front. The gradient between the strong high pressure along 31N and lower pressure associated with the stalled front will induce fresh to strong NE to E trade winds south of 23N late this afternoon through Sun. On Sun, fresh to strong southerly flow will set up over the waters east of northeast Florida to about 70W in advance of the next cold front. This cold front is expected to move into the NW forecast waters late Sun. Strong to near-gale force winds are likely on both sides of the front, with brief gales possible Sun night N of 29N between NE Florida and 75W. Seas will build ahead and behind the cold front. $$ KRV